By Gustavo de Arístegui, as published by Negocios.
20 January 2026
I. BRIEF INTRODUCTION
The news cycle of 19–20 January 2026 is marked by a chain of events that together shape a geopolitical landscape of extraordinary complexity and tension. U.S. President Donald Trump has triggered an unprecedented diplomatic escalation with his European allies by publicly linking his obsession with acquiring Greenland to his resentment at not having been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, threatening punitive tariffs of 10% immediately and 25% from Juneagainst eight allied nations. A tantrum unbecoming of a statesman and more typical of a petulant child—unthinkable behavior for the head of state of the most powerful nation on the planet.
At the same time, the World Economic Forum in Davos opens its 56th edition under the motto “Spirit of Dialogue”, in a context where confrontation clearly prevails over cooperation. The summit takes place as the European Union convenes an emergency meeting to coordinate its response to U.S. tariff threats, with France pushing to activate the so-called “trade bazooka” (the Anti-Coercion Instrument) against Washington.
In Iran, the theocratic-oligarchic regime has bloodily crushed the largest popular uprising since the 1979 Revolution, with death toll estimates ranging between 5,000 and 18,000 depending on sources—an outright massacre that has outraged the international community. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war continues unabated, with 144 daily clashesand more than 8,000 kamikaze drones used in the past 24 hours, as negotiations in Miami and Davos attempt—so far unsuccessfully—to bridge positions toward an elusive peace.
II. THE 10 MOST IMPORTANT NEWS STORIES OF THE LAST 24 HOURS
1. Trump links Greenland to the Nobel: a petulant child’s tantrum
FACTS
President Trump sent a message to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre explicitly linking his demands over Greenland to the fact that the Nobel Committee has not awarded him the Peace Prize. In the message, leaked to the media, Trump states: “Considering that your country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for stopping 8 wars PLUS, I no longer feel obliged to think purely in terms of Peace.” He then announced 10% tariffs effective 1 February on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland, rising to 25% in June if no agreement is reached for the “full and complete purchase of Greenland.” When asked whether he would use military force, Trump replied: “No comment.”
IMPLICATIONS
This episode represents a turning point in transatlantic relations. That the leader of the world’s largest democratic power would threaten his closest allies over a personal grievance related to an honorary prize constitutes a diplomatic absurdity of historic proportions. Prime Minister Støre was forced to remind Trump that the Nobel Committee is independent from the Norwegian government—a basic fact that any informed statesman should know. The link between narcissistic resentment and the foreign policy of the world’s superpower creates uncertainty that benefits only the adversaries of the West: China and Russia. As EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas put it: “China and Russia must be celebrating.”
OUTLOOK AND SCENARIOS
The European Union has convened an extraordinary summit for later this week, where responses under consideration include €93 billion in counter-tariffs and the possible activation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument, a legal tool never before used. The Trump administration appears to underestimate Europe’s capacity to respond and the determination of allied democracies to defend territorial sovereignty. That said, the U.S. position on Arctic security does have legitimate strategic foundations; the problem lies in the method, which demolishes decades of transatlantic trust.
2. Massacre in Iran: the jihadist oligarchy crushes its own people
FACTS
The Iranian regime has suppressed the largest popular uprising since 1979, leaving a catastrophic human toll. The figures vary dramatically: Iranian authorities acknowledge “several thousand” deaths; human rights groups such as HRANA confirm at least 3,300 fatalities; The Sunday Times reports between 16,500 and 18,000 dead and 330,000 injured; an Iranian official cited by Reuters admits more than 5,000 deaths; and Supreme Leader Khamenei publicly acknowledged “several thousand” killed—an unprecedented admission. The internet blackout, in place since 8 January, continues to hinder independent verification. Amnesty International has documented mass killings “on an unprecedented scale.”
IMPLICATIONS
What has occurred in Iran is not the conduct of an ordinary theocracy, but of what must properly be described as a jihadist oligarchy. The ayatollahs’ regime long ago abandoned any claim to genuine religious legitimacy, becoming instead a kleptocratic power structure that instrumentalizes Islam as a tool of social control. The documented participation of Iraqi Shiite militias—up to 5,000 fighters, according to CNN—in domestic repression underscores the transnational nature of this theocratic mafia. Summary executions, sniper fire to the head and chest, and mass arrests (over 18,400 detainees) paint the picture of a regime that has declared war on its own population.
OUTLOOK AND SCENARIOS
President Trump has threatened military action if executions continue, leading to a tense pause in announced hangings. However, Judiciary Chief Mohseni-Ejei has stated that sentences must be “swift” to have “effect.” The international community must coordinate a firm response: targeted sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and support for Iranian civil society. The Iranian people, chanting “No to the mullahs, no to the Shah,” have made clear their aspiration is a democratic republic—not a monarchical restoration nor clerical continuity.
3. Davos 2026: dialogue under tariff threat
FACTS
The 56th World Economic Forum has opened in Davos under the theme “Spirit of Dialogue,” bringing together nearly 3,000 participants, including 65 heads of state and government, 850 CEOs, and 100 technology pioneers. Trump will attend in person for the first time since 2020, leading the largest U.S. delegation ever. Notably, Denmark has declined to participate in protest over the Greenland threats. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will open the sessions, while President Zelensky will seek support for Ukraine.
IMPLICATIONS
The irony of a forum dedicated to dialogue convening amid tariff threats is lost on no one. Davos 2026 has become the stage for a simmering confrontation between Washington and its traditional partners. The newly established “USA House” in the Swiss resort symbolises the Trump administration’s hegemonic ambitions. Planned topics—AI, climate governance, economic cooperation—are overshadowed by geopolitical uncertainty emanating from the White House.
OUTLOOK AND SCENARIOS
Trump is expected to announce the members of the “Board of Peace” for Gaza, to which even Putin has reportedly been invited. Bilateral meetings will be decisive: Støre hopes to speak with Trump, and Ukraine-Russia talks could advance. The absence of Xi Jinping, Modi, and Lula indicates that Davos has lost part of its appeal as a truly global forum. The summit will be remembered more for transatlantic tensions than for substantive agreements.
4. War in Ukraine: 144 clashes and 8,000 drones in 24 hours
FACTS
Day 1,426 of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine saw 144 combat engagements, 112 air strikes with 316 guided bombs, 8,156 kamikaze drones, and 3,875 artillery bombardments. Ukrainian forces destroyed 2 tanks, 3 armored vehicles, 39 artillery systems, and 765 Russian drones. Total Russian losses since February 2022 stand at 1,227,440 casualties. Ukraine intercepted 126 of 145 drones in the latest overnight attack. Russia plans to deploy up to 1,000 drones daily and form 11 new divisions this year with 409,000 recruits.
IMPLICATIONS
The intensified Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the depths of winter constitute a systematic war crime. Millions of Ukrainians endure temperatures of –19°C without heating or electricity. Negotiations in Miami and the prospect of talks in Davos offer hope of diplomatic progress, though Putin has consistently shown that his default position is to continue the war. Proposed 15-year U.S. security guarantees lack credibility given Trump’s track record on international commitments.
OUTLOOK AND SCENARIOS
Analysts agree that 2026 is unlikely to see the end of the conflict. Putin does not regard Ukraine as a legitimate nation and maintains offensive objectives in all four claimed regions. Europe must assume greater responsibility for Ukraine’s defense and post-conflict guarantees. European support for Kyiv is not charity—it is an investment in continental security. A Russian victory in Ukraine would exponentially increase the cost of defending Europe itself.