The UK’s problems with the EU were caused by politicians who used “the villains in Brussels” as an excuse for their woes.
By Gustavo de Arístegui, as published by La Razón, 21 June, 2026
British nationalist isolationism showed its darkest side in June 2016, when a majority of the electorate voted for Brexit, a decision whose consequences have been disastrous for the country on almost every front. The figures are now undeniable: the Office for Budget Responsibility—the UK’s independent fiscal body—estimates that leaving the European Union will reduce long-term productivity by around 4% compared to a Britain that had remained in the bloc . This figure is, in fact, the average of more than a dozen reputable studies, and the most recent—from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and Goldman Sachs—raise the cost to between 5% and 8%. Economist John Springford has also translated this into a fiscal deficit of nearly £40 billion between 2019 and 2024 alone . But how did we arrive at such an absurd figure? There are many causes, and, as is often the case in major catastrophes, each one catalyzed the others, accelerating and aggravating the disastrous consequences.
Reducing everything to nationalist impulses would be as simplistic as it is wrong. We cannot place all the blame on the British nationalist-isolationist camp. The European Union has become, in recent decades, a behemoth lacking sufficient political, judicial, or internal control. But beyond the undeniable flaws of the European Union, its excesses, and its increasingly frequent abuses of power, the United Kingdom’s problems with Brussels were largely caused by an increasingly incompetent political elite , which hid behind “the villains in Brussels” to explain all its ills, both from within the government and from the opposition. The British exception began to irritate many partners: the famous “British rebate” successfully negotiated by Margaret Thatcher calmed things at home, but provoked the ire of those who saw it, not without reason, as an attack on the principles of equality, solidarity, and fairness that supposedly underpin the European project.
Added to all this was a fundamental factor, more difficult to measure but decisive: the inevitable and widespread decline of the political classes —which ceased to be elites decades ago—throughout the Western world. This decline took longer to affect the United Kingdom, but it eventually arrived, and suddenly. In my opinion, the last great figure in British politics was Tony Blair; everything that came after, starting with Gordon Brown, was a downward spiral.
It is worth remembering what has been squandered. For generations, the United Kingdom was able to navigate its enormous socioeconomic difficulties thanks to a rare combination of factors: a professional, efficient, apolitical, and incorruptible administration. Since the Northcote-Trevelyan reforms of 1854, which professionalized Whitehall and banished patronage, there was no higher honor in that country than being a senior civil servant, recruited from the best and educated at the finest colleges and universities. The political class itself was, to a large extent, the pinnacle of that system, as even among the Labour Party there were many graduates of Oxford, Cambridge, the London School of Economics, King’s College, or the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), a breeding ground for diplomats and spies. Governing was a prestigious profession, not a pastime for the mediocre .
That institutional strength was, not by chance, what enabled the country’s last major reform. After the Second World War, the socioeconomic situation was very precarious, and it wasn’t until Margaret Thatcher’s election that, with truly exceptional political courage and leadership, the government managed to rein in the completely out-of-control unions, whose power was suffocating the British economy with wildcat strikes and impossible demands. Whether you like her or not—I am a devoted admirer—Thatcher governed with effectiveness, courage, and leadership. What came after was, to a large extent, theater and, in some cases, like Boris Johnson’s, histrionics bordering on the ridiculous.
The turning point has a name and a date: David Cameron’s rise to power in 2010. Educated at Eton and Oxford, he seemingly possessed the right credentials, but he was too young, inexperienced, and lacked real management experience. It soon became clear that the position was far too much for him. His government was unable to manage the devastating effects of the 2007-2012 economic crisis, and, as is so often the case, populism reared its ugly head, promising the fruits of paradise if Spain left the European Union. A majority of the Conservative Party embraced the Brexit debacle to mask their own utterly deficient governance.
I experienced the campaign firsthand, as I advised several organizations that supported remaining in the EU. The debates were brutal, literally cutthroat: families divided between Leave and Remain, schisms within the Conservative Party itself, and all because Cameron called the referendum to cover up his own mistakes, put pressure on Brussels, and, above all, because he was convinced he would win. A colossal blunder.
As Clement Attlee warned in 1945, and as Margaret Thatcher recalled with relish in 1975, referendums are a tool of demagogues and dictators, a mechanism alien to the best British parliamentary tradition. Referendums, indeed, are a devil’s work.
Cameron’s replacement then came after the disastrous Remain campaign, because many of the Conservatives who advocated remaining in the EU did so at the serious risk of being kicked out by their voters and their rivals within the party. They championed Remain half-heartedly and without the slightest enthusiasm. It didn’t help that Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats had already suffered a crushing defeat in 2015, losing 49 of their 57 seats: many Conservatives interpreted that humiliation as a wake-up call to distance themselves from “Brussels-style” positions they considered toxic, even if they believed in remaining. The rest is a dramatic case of implosion.
After Cameron’s resignation and Theresa May’s rise to power, everything began to spiral downward : her leadership, during a global economic boom, was mediocre at best, while internal populism ran rampant. Boris Johnson’s arrival at 10 Downing Street—as eccentric as he was a poor manager, though a brilliant orator—was the icing on a cake of terrible leaders. Just when many thought Cameron had been the worst Conservative prime minister in decades, we discovered that each successor was worse than the last.
The zenith of incompetence arrived with Liz Truss and her very short-lived Chancellor of the Exchequer —the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the de facto number two in any British government—Kwasi Kwarteng, who barely lasted a month in office. In those few weeks, the two of them nearly caused the pound sterling to plummet, hitting an all-time low against the dollar just days after the infamous “mini-budget.” A world record for political incompetence. The political, economic, social, and even reputational consequences—for the once undisputed British prestige and influence in the world of finance—have been severe, and we’re not just talking about macroeconomics. London’s economy has suffered greatly: empty restaurants, shops full, but with customers spending less. According to EY’s Financial Services Brexit Tracker, financial institutions have moved assets worth approximately £1.3 trillion (twelve zeros, not nine) and over 7,000 skilled jobs from the City of London to continental centers, spread across Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin, Amsterdam, Luxembourg, and even Madrid. This is compounded by a significant exodus of people: Henley & Partners estimates that by 2025 alone, the UK will lose a record 16,500 net millionaires—the first time a European country has topped this list—as they move to Dubai, Milan, Geneva, Madrid, or Portugal, not counting the many thousands of high-net-worth temporary residents who have simply left. The most visible direct effect is the sharp drop in luxury housing prices in London’s best neighborhoods, where it was previously almost impossible to find anything and prices were among the highest on the planet: the LonRes and Knight Frank indices place the recent year-on-year fall at around 10% – the largest since the 2008 crisis – and the cumulative collapse since the peak in 2014 now exceeds 20%.
In short, Brexit has been a disastrous deal , transferring a significant portion of the City of London’s financial resources to Paris, Milan, Frankfurt, and Madrid. And, as if all of the above weren’t enough, today we have one of the worst Labour governments in decades, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer completely reeling from the constant blows and defeats . The latest was dealt by his main rival, the charismatic mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, who on June 18th comfortably won the Makerfield by-election—defeating the Reform UK candidate—despite the underhanded maneuvers of Starmer’s machine to prevent him from entering Westminster and challenging him for the party leadership.
The United Kingdom’s problems have multiplied, as even its once-excellent central administration has begun to show signs of declining quality among its staff. The head of the entire British civil service is the Cabinet Secretary, traditionally the highest-ranking civil servant, more revered than respected by colleagues, the voice of reason and common sense when prime ministers are tempted to act rashly. The unwritten rule was that they would remain in office for nearly a decade, and it was astonishing when one was replaced after four years. Well, since 2020, the country has burned through four—Mark Sedwill, Simon Case, Chris Wormald, and the current one, Antonia Romeo—and Wormald, according to the Institute for Government, had the shortest tenure in the office’s history. This explains almost everything; the alarming lack of quality among politicians and senior civil servants is the true pandemic of this decade , and I know of no more effective vaccine than the voters’ memory.
*Gustavo de Arístegui is a diplomat and was ambassador to India, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka (2012-2016) gustvodearistegui.substack.com