Gustavo de Arístegui,
October 2, 2026
I. INTRODUCTION
Today’s three news stories share a common thread: the war is no longer fought only on the front lines. It is being fought at an airbase in the English countryside, in the cockpit of a commercial airliner flying from Dubai to Tel Aviv, and in the diesel fuel depots of Europe.
In the UK, counter-terrorism police have arrested a British-Iranian national in connection with an alleged plot against RAF Fairford, used by US bombers in the war against Iran, and Prime Minister Andy Burnham says there are “strong indications” of Tehran’s involvement.
In mid-flight, the co-pilot of a flydubai plane stabbed the captain and caused the aircraft to plummet; four Israeli passengers subdued him and saved more than 170 people. Meanwhile, Washington is threatening France and Germany with a ban on exporting US diesel if they do not release their emergency reserves, Putin is announcing that he will not sell diesel to the world until sanctions are lifted, and Donald Trump is campaigning in Alabama, far from the states that will decide the November elections.
II . NEWS FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS
1. The RAF Fairford plot: the Iranian regime strikes again on European soil
British counter-terrorism police arrested a 27-year-old man with dual British and Iranian nationality in London’s Westminster district on Thursday on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts, under Section 5 of the Terrorism Act 2006. His arrest is linked to last weekend’s incident at RAF Fairford, the Gloucestershire air base from which US bombers operate. A second man, a 26-year-old British national, was questioned for evidentiary purposes.
Five men, all British citizens, residents of London, and aged between 23 and 25, were arrested near the base on Sunday as suspects in terrorism and explosives offenses. Police found gasoline in three vans linked to them, but no explosives, and the five were released on bail on Monday while the investigation continues.
The national coordinator for counterterrorism police, Vicki Evans, has described the investigation as “enormously complex” and confirmed that the possible involvement of a foreign state is being examined. On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the BBC that there are strong indications that Iran played a role in the incident. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had earlier described the incident as very serious and pointed to the involvement of a foreign actor. The Iranian embassy in London denies any involvement and calls the accusations baseless and malicious.
The context is unequivocal. London authorized Washington to use Fairford for limited defensive strikes against Iranian missile capabilities, and B-1 bombers have taken off from there. Tehran publicly warned that any base used to attack Iranian territory would be a legitimate target.
Implications
Let’s be blunt. Once again, the oligarchic-jihadist regime in Tehran is using all its resources, channels, and agents abroad to destabilize its enemies and punish countries that stand particularly firm against it.
This is not a new suspicion or an isolated hypothesis. It is a documented pattern. The head of Britain’s domestic security service, MI5, Ken McCallum, revealed in October 2024 that his agents had responded since 2022 to some twenty Iranian-backed plots with lethal potential on British soil. In March 2024, Iran International journalist Pouria Zeraati was stabbed in London. In May 2025, police arrested several Iranian nationals for an alleged plot to attack a target on British soil.
In Spain, we know this pattern well. The attack against Alejo Vidal-Quadras, former Vice-President of the European Parliament, in Madrid in November 2023, is being investigated as an operation linked to Iran and carried out by hitmen from organized crime. It’s the regime’s trademark: it outsources its violence, recruits common criminals and young people born in Europe, and reserves the right to plausible deniability.
The profile of those arrested in Fairford fits that model. Five young Britons, gasoline in vans, and a possible link with dual nationality: this is how Tehran has operated in Europe for years, with disposable pieces that do not lead directly to the command chain of the IRGC (Sepah-e Pasdaran-e Enqelab-e Eslami, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) or its Quds Force.
The message the regime wants to convey is as clear as its denial is predictable: whoever lends their territory to the United States will pay the price. It is a form of strategic blackmail aimed not only at the United Kingdom, but at all European allies hosting US bases, including Spain with Rota and Morón. The response cannot be prudence or appeasement.
Europe must act decisively: fully outlaw the IRGC as a terrorist organization where it is not already, expel intelligence agents operating under diplomatic cover, strengthen foreign influence monitoring, and coordinate the response of intelligence services. A regime that treats every embassy as a base of operations does not deserve to be treated as a normal state.
Perspectives and scenarios
The investigation will determine whether the Westminster detainee was the link to a network directed from Tehran. If confirmed, we can expect the expulsion of Iranian diplomats, renewed pressure to outlaw the IRGC, and increased security at all European bases used by the United States. The risk of further attempts in other allied countries remains high for the duration of the war. Key indicators to watch include formal indictments, any connection to the Quds Force, and the coordinated response of European partners.
2. Terror in the cockpit: The FlyDubai co-pilot who tried to crash a plane bound for Tel Aviv
Facts
Flydubai flight FZ1073, which was traveling between Dubai and Tel Aviv with more than 170 people on board, was diverted to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday after the co-pilot stabbed the captain in the cockpit and the plane, a Boeing 737 Max, began a steep descent of about 5,000 meters in less than two minutes.
Four Israeli passengers managed to subdue the attacker. Yaniv Hayun, 50, owner of a sewage pumping company, entered the cockpit, restrained the co-pilot, and dragged him out. He then returned to the controls and pulled them back to right the aircraft. He told Reuters that he knew what to do because he had watched the television series “Air Crash Investigation.” Tzvika Manes, a bank executive, helped restrain the co-pilot using airline headsets. His wife, Tali Manes, was the first to alert the passengers. Doctor Shota Musaev treated the injured captain and, along with Asaf Rajuan, helped restrain the attacker. Other flydubai pilots who were off duty took control and landed in Tabuk, in northwestern Saudi Arabia.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog has nominated the five for the Presidential Award for Civil Heroism, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Hayun at Ben Gurion Airport. According to Israeli officials quoted by CNN, the attacker is an Omani citizen who had been with the airline for less than a year; a colleague described him on Israeli television as a “religious extremist,” and Netanyahu stated that he had been subjected to radical Islamist indoctrination. The airline maintains that the motives are unknown and subject to a formal investigation. Israel has suspended flydubai flights pending the investigation.
Implications
First and foremost is recognition. Five civilians, without training or weapons, saved more than 170 lives with courage and composure. This is the best possible response to terrorism: a society that does not freeze in the face of threat.
The second lesson is security. After September 11, 2001, armored cockpit doors protected crews from external threats. The Germanwings disaster in 2015, in which the co-pilot deliberately crashed the plane in the Alps, demonstrated that they do not protect against internal threats. Flight FZ1073 confirms this in the most brutal way: the most dangerous enemy is the one already within. Airlines and authorities must review radicalization checks and crew vetting procedures, avoiding discrimination based on nationality or religion, but also avoiding naiveté.
The third point is prudence. Until the investigation establishes the motive and the possible existence of accomplices, it is best not to draw hasty conclusions. The attacker’s Omani nationality does not imply any responsibility on the part of the Sultanate, which has exercised a discreet and valuable role in mediating the region for years. Fanaticism is an individual act until proven otherwise.
The fourth point is the most relevant geopolitical fact, and it has barely been emphasized. An Emirati plane bound for Israel, carrying Israeli passengers, landed in Saudi Arabia, a country that does not maintain diplomatic relations with Israel, and was handled without incident. The air link between the UAE and Israel, a result of the 2020 Abraham Accords, has survived the Iran-Iraq War, and Riyadh has demonstrated that, when lives are at stake, cooperation works. It is the quiet normalization that terrorism seeks to destroy and which, paradoxically, has been strengthened.
Perspectives and scenarios
The joint investigation by Emirati and Saudi authorities will determine whether the co-pilot acted alone or was part of a network. Stricter controls on flight crews on routes to Israel and a review of cockpit protocols across the region are expected. The suspension of flydubai flights will likely be temporary, as neither side wants to sacrifice a connection that symbolizes openness between the Gulf and Israel.
3. The diesel blackmail: Washington pressures Europe, Putin turns off the tap, and Trump campaigns in Alabama
Facts
The Trump administration has warned Germany and France that they must tap into their emergency diesel reserves to ease global fuel prices or face a potential US ban on diesel exports, according to three sources cited by Reuters. One source puts the US demand at 120 million barrels within six months; another, at 100 million within 20 days. Most of Europe’s diesel reserves are stored in these two countries, which Washington accuses of failing to fully meet previous commitments.
The European Commission, Germany, France, Italy, Ireland, and the United Kingdom held talks on Thursday regarding the possible release of fuel reserves, and on Friday, member states discussed a French proposal. According to Reuters sources, any agreement should include a US commitment not to impose a unilateral export ban. France holds the G7 (Group of Seven) presidency this year. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright expressed confidence that Europe would release its reserves and called for coordinated action ahead of the harvest and heating season.
The market is under considerable strain. Russia, which banned diesel exports on July 8 following Ukrainian attacks on its refineries, has extended the ban until the end of October, and Vladimir Putin has declared that he will not sell diesel to the rest of the world until sanctions against his country are lifted. Chinese refineries have suspended their fuel exports during October to bolster their stockpiles. Europe has become increasingly dependent on US fuel after banning Russian imports and following disruptions to supplies from the Middle East due to the Iran-Contra affair.
All of this is happening a month before the midterm elections. Trump, who promised to campaign in 35 contested districts, is kicking off October with rallies in Oklahoma and Mobile, Alabama, two of the most Republican-leaning states in the country. According to the Associated Press, Republicans are investing money in states they considered safe, given an electorate dissatisfied with the economy, fuel prices, and the Iran-Contra affair; only 26% of Americans approve of his handling of the economy.
Implications
We are facing a crossfire of energy blackmail, and Europe is caught in the middle. Putin has weaponized diesel, as he did previously with gas, making its supply contingent on the lifting of sanctions. Beijing is hoarding. Washington, which should be the most reliable ally, is threatening to cut off fuel supplies to its partners to lower gasoline prices before the elections.
The US threat follows the logic of outbursts, which should be taken seriously but not at face value: demanding the excessive in order to obtain the release of reserves. Its methods, however, are deplorable, and its effects could be counterproductive. Coercing allies with energy supplies is precisely what Washington criticizes Moscow for, and each such threat reinforces the Russian and Chinese argument about the unreliability of the United States as a partner.
Europe is once again paying the price for its lack of foresight. It rightly broke its dependence on Russian diesel, but failed to build its own alternative: it has closed refineries, concentrated its reserves in two countries, and now relies on suppliers who are putting pressure on it. The French proposal to condition any release on a US commitment not to ban exports is sensible: if Europe relinquishes its reserves, it must receive in return a guarantee that it will not be punished afterward.
Trump’s trip to Alabama illustrates the other side of the coin. A president who seeks the warmth of rallies in safer strongholds, instead of fighting the battle in the districts that decide the majority, reveals the unease within his camp. The election calendar has become the primary determinant of American foreign policy, from the Iran war to diesel fuel, and that’s bad news for its allies.
Perspectives and scenarios
The most likely scenario is a coordinated European release of reserves, smaller than the amount demanded, in exchange for a US commitment not to prohibit exports, possibly under the auspices of the G7 and the International Energy Agency. If Washington were to ultimately impose the ban, diesel prices in Europe would skyrocket and the transatlantic crisis would be severe. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Russia maintains its veto, and China withholds its production, no amount of reserve release will resolve the underlying problem.
III. MEDIA RACK
Reuters sets the agenda with two exclusives on US pressure to release diesel reserves and the French proposal, and with Michal Yaakov Itzhaki’s account of Yaniv Hayun, the passenger who saved flight FZ1073.
The Economist. Its daily summary includes Putin’s announcement on diesel, the arrest of the British-Iranian citizen for the Fairford plot, and Trump’s trip to Alabama ahead of what looks to be a bitter election.
CNN and Axios offer the most comprehensive coverage of the Fairford case, including Burnham’s statements, the Iranian threat against bases hosting US bombers, and the Iranian embassy’s denial.
CNN, The Globe and Mail, and the Israeli press are reconstructing flight FZ1073 minute by minute; Israeli television channels are providing testimonies about the co-pilot’s religious background, which have not yet been officially confirmed.
NBC News and Associated Press. NBC details the White House offensive on European reserves; AP highlights the contradiction between Trump’s promise to campaign in swing districts and his rallies in safe Republican states.
IV. RISK TRAFFIC LIGHT
| Risk | Level | Trend | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iranian state terrorism in Europe | ● CRITICAL | On the rise | Plot against Fairford; threat to bases hosting the US. |
| Security of US bases in Europe (including Rota and Morón) | ● STOP | On the rise | Tehran considers them legitimate targets. |
| Internal threat in commercial aviation | ● STOP | On the rise | Radicalized co-pilot on a route to Israel. |
| Diesel shortage in Europe | ● CRITICAL | On the rise | Russian veto, Chinese suspension and threat of US ban. |
| Transatlantic fracture due to energy | ● STOP | On the rise | Washington threatens France and Germany. |
| Russian energy blackmail | ● STOP | Stable | Putin makes diesel fuel conditional on the lifting of sanctions. |
| Election calendar as a driver of US foreign policy | ● MODERATE | On the rise | November 3rd elections; 26% economic approval rating. |
| Silent normalization between the Gulf and Israel | ● OPPORTUNITY | Improvement | Saudi Arabia welcomes a flight to Israel without incident. |
● Red: critical ● Orange: high ● Yellow: moderate ● Green: opportunity
V. EDITORIAL COMMENTARY
Unrestricted warfare reaches the rear.
In 1999, two colonels in the Chinese Air Force, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, published a book that many in the West read only belatedly: “Unrestricted Warfare.” Their thesis was as simple as it was unsettling. In the 21st century, they argued, everything can be weaponized: terrorism, finance, trade, energy, information. The line between war and peace, between the front lines and the rear, between soldier and civilian, is dissolving.
A quarter of a century earlier, British strategist Basil Liddell Hart had reached a similar conclusion from the experience of the two world wars: conflicts are more often decided by indirect approach, by striking at the enemy’s weak point and rear, than by a frontal clash of armies.
Today’s three news stories perfectly illustrate both ideas.
The Iranian regime, unable to defeat the United States in the air or at sea, strikes from the rear: at a base in the English countryside, with young men recruited in London, fuel in vans, and a possible liaison with dual nationality. It is the indirect approach in its most cowardly form. The objective is not to destroy the base, but to sow fear among the allies who provide it.
Putin does the same with diesel. He doesn’t need to attack Europe: he simply turns off the tap and waits for winter, prices, and divisions among allies to do the work. Beijing, discreetly, withholds its production. Energy is, as Qiao and Wang predicted, yet another weapon.
Flight FZ1073 serves as a reminder that the threat can be within: a radicalized co-pilot in the cockpit of a commercial airliner is the extreme expression of this blurring of the lines between front and rear. This time, the response came from five civilians who refused to be passive victims.
Faced with this unrestricted war, the worst mistake democracies can make is to continue thinking in isolation: security on one side, energy on the other, foreign policy dictated by the electoral calendar. Washington threatens its allies with fuel to win elections, while Tehran and Moscow attack those same allies in their rear. This fracture is precisely what they seek.
The response demands unity and resolve. Unity among allies, so that no electoral pressure breaks the common front against those who use terror and energy as weapons. Resoluteness against the Iranian regime, which must pay an unequivocal price every time it extends its violence onto European soil. Energy foresight, so that Europe does not again become dependent on suppliers who blackmail it. What is at stake is not just a base, a flight, or diesel reserves, but the capacity of democracies to defend themselves in a war that no longer knows rear guards.