By Gustavo de Arístegui.
10 September 2025
1. ISRAEL – Strike against Hamas leadership in Doha (Qatar)
1.1 What happened.
Several explosions shook Doha following a precision Israeli strike against Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement) targets, with Khalil al-Hayya among the leaders identified by Israeli sources. Qatar denounced a “flagrant violation of international law”; the United States (U.S.) expressed concern over the escalation. Coverage by Reuters, AP (Associated Press), ABC News, and Fox News confirms the strike and the survival of the main Hamas leadership, according to Hamas’ version.
1.2 Why it matters.
The strike takes the conflict beyond Gaza and undermines Qatar’s mediating role, a central pillar in ceasefire negotiations and hostage exchanges. It represents an extraterritorial escalation with the potential to reconfigure balances within the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and to strain the U.S.–Israel–Gulf monarchies nexus.
1.3 Signals (72 hours).
● Coordinated condemnation by Arab capitals and calls for an international investigation;
● Reinforced security in Doha and a tightening of counterterrorism frameworks to shield mediation efforts;
● Washington attempts to preserve the Qatari channel without endorsing extraterritorial operations.
1.4 Risks.
(i) Retaliation by Hamas-aligned networks in third countries;
(ii) Possible erosion of Qatar’s critically important mediation role (a vacuum that Egypt or Turkey are attempting to fill with clearly opportunistic moves);
(iii) A new red line shattered: the normalization of Israeli targeted operations on the territory of mediator states and, above all, Western allies.
1.5 Key data.
The U.S. maintains its most important Middle Eastern military base in Qatar, Al Udeid Air Base, hosting more than 10,000 personnel. This is the first time Israel has struck the territory of a state officially declared a strategic ally of the U.S.
President Donald Trump has expressed deep irritation over the Netanyahu government’s action and has rejected—one could even say condemned—the Israeli strike on Qatari territory.
Eyewitness accounts and images place explosions in the Legtaifiya area of the capital; Qatar and Saudi Arabia issued immediate condemnations.
1.6 What to watch.
U.S. red lines on out-of-theater operations; whether Egypt or Turkey expand mediation efforts; collateral impacts on energy, aviation, and insurance markets in the Gulf.
2. FRANCE – Emmanuel Macron appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister after the censure of François Bayrou
2.1 What happened.
After a motion of censure passed in the National Assembly, Emmanuel Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu (39)—until now Minister of Defence—as Prime Minister in an effort to salvage the Budget in a fragmented Parliament. Media report imminent protests and extremely harsh parliamentary opposition.
2.2 Why it matters.
France, the second-largest economy in the Eurozone (EZ), is systemic: instability widens the OAT-Bund spread and complicates the European defence agenda amid the war in Ukraine. Lecornu symbolizes continuity in the 2024–2030 defence pivot and the pro-business agenda.
2.3 Signals (2 weeks).
● Opposition calls to “Shut everything down” and a national march;
● Variable-geometry alliances with LR (Les Républicains) and centrists to pass fiscal legislation;
● Debate over the deficit under scrutiny from the ECB (European Central Bank) and Brussels.
2.4 Risks.
(i) Budget failure → snap elections;
(ii) Deterioration of fiscal credibility and a rise in the risk premium if markets and institutions are unconvinced.
2.5 Key data.
The appointment comes on the eve of a major national protest; Lecornu was the architect of the Military Programming Law (≈ €413 billion through 2030).
2.6 What to watch.
Brussels’ response to the fiscal outlook and ECB signals regarding peripheral spreads.
3. NEPAL – K. P. Sharma Oli resigns: Parliament set ablaze and Gen-Z anti-corruption protests
3.1 What happened.
Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli resigned following anti-corruption protests led by Generation Z, with 19 fatalities, a curfew, and Parliament set on fire. The ban on social networks was lifted, but mobilization continued; Kathmandu airport was temporarily closed.
3.2 Why it matters.
Nepal, wedged between India and China, is a corridor within the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative); a chaotic transition opens space for interference by neighboring powers and risks militarization of public order. Despite being a weak state with incompetent governments, lacking resources, infrastructure, and plagued by rampant corruption, Nepal is key to regional stability and effectively functions as a buffer between China and India.
3.3 Signals (10 days).
● Interim cabinet and an anti-corruption reform timetable;
● Steps by New Delhi and Beijing to “ensure stability” (border security, debt);
● Gradual reopening of critical infrastructure and services.
3.4 Risks.
(i) A securitarian drift. Nepal has in effect been a failed state since the fall of the monarchy.
(ii) Coalition fragmentation; risk that an extreme-left communist government is replaced by even more radical Maoist factions.
(iii) A humanitarian crisis if shortages persist. Nepal lacks the resources, infrastructure, management capacity, or a minimally competent administration to confront any humanitarian emergency.
3.5 Key data.
The social media ban was the trigger, but systemic corruption sustained the protests even after the measure was lifted.
3.6 What to watch.
Whether a consensus technocrat emerges or a coalition of convenience under military tutelage.
4. UKRAINE – Massacre in Yarova (Donetsk) and a new wave of Russian drones/missiles
4.1 What happened.
A glide-bomb attack in Yarova (Donetsk) killed 24 civilians, mostly pensioners waiting to receive payments; 19 were wounded. In parallel, waves of drones and missiles struck several regions. Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for an immediate global response.
4.2 Why it matters.
Moscow is intensifying punishment of the civilian rear to saturate Ukrainian air defences and erode morale; Kyiv is accelerating domestic production of ammunition and drones and requesting additional air-defence systems.
4.3 Signals (30 days).
● New air-defence packages from the U.S. and European partners;
● Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics (fuel depots, rail hubs);
● EU debate over a new sanctions package.
4.4 Risks.
(i) Normalization, generalization, and growing international indifference to mass civilian harm inflicted by Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians.
(ii) Serious fatigue in international support if there are no advances. Worrying signs of weariness are already visible in public opinion even in the most supportive countries.
(iii) Possible escalation involving ballistic missiles if Russia perceives vulnerabilities within the coalition backing Ukraine.
4.5 Key data.
24 dead and 19 wounded, confirmed by Ukrainian authorities and international media.
4.6 What to watch.
Interception rates (>85% at peaks) and replenishment of medium-range SAM (surface-to-air missile) systems.
5. UNITED STATES – SCOTUS to rule on whether IEEPA authorizes global tariffs
5.1 What happened.
The U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) agreed to hear on an expedited basis a case that will determine whether the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) permits generalized tariffs. A federal judge had already partially annulled them; the Supreme Court will now define the true scope of presidential power.
5.2 Why it matters.
This is a constitutional stress test with direct impact on supply chains, inflation, and indirect tax revenues (higher prices may reduce consumption). A restrictive ruling would force the Trump Administration to seek alternative legislative routes. A ruling favorable to the Administration would normalize international trade coercion as a foreign-policy tool.
5.3 Signals (through November).
● Importers preparing judicial claims for tariff payments that may be overturned if the ruling goes against the Administration;
● Intensified lobbying campaigns in favor of free trade;
● The Department of the Treasury and the Department of Commerce are pre-emptively studying transition measures.
5.4 Risks (scenarios).
● SCOTUS strikes down tariffs → contractual uncertainty and price volatility;
● SCOTUS upholds tariffs → carte blanche for expansive tariffs (including geopolitical, punitive, and secondary punitive tariffs) in future crises.
5.5 Key data.
Oral arguments scheduled for November 2025 (accelerated calendar).
5.6 What to watch.
Signals from the G-7 regarding tariff coordination and reactions from China and the EU.
6. THAILAND – Supreme Court orders one-year imprisonment of Thaksin Shinawatra; blow to the “clan”
6.1 What happened.
The Supreme Court ruled that Thaksin Shinawatra’s VIP hospital stay does not count toward his sentence and ordered his imprisonment for one year. The former prime minister accepted the verdict. The ruling follows the removal of his daughter Paetongtarn as head of government and the rise of Anutin Charnvirakul.
6.2 Why it matters.
It signals a rebalancing in favor of the military-royalist bloc and a symbolic blow to Pheu Thai. There is a risk of prolonged polarization with effects on investment and tourism.
6.3 Signals (14 days).
● Containment of protests in Bangkok;
● Repositioning of Pheu Thai;
● Search for macroeconomic stability by the new cabinet.
6.4 Risks.
(i) Constitutional engineering;
(ii) Litigation in related corruption cases;
(iii) Pressure on the baht and the SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand).
6.5 Key data.
From an 8-year sentence commuted to 1 by royal decree, now effective imprisonment following judicial review.
6.6 What to watch.
Reactions from the Privy Council and the military establishment; signals in currency and equity markets.
BONUS MONITOR – Climate / Maritime Security: megaberg A23A rapidly disintegrates
Why it matters.
A23A, one of the largest icebergs ever recorded, is fragmenting rapidly near South Georgia: navigation risks and an indicator of warmer waters facilitating glacial discharge (it does not itself raise sea levels but alters ocean dynamics).
MEDIA RACK – ANALYZED SOURCES
1. Bloomberg / The Pulse — “Trump Floats New China, India Tariffs Over Russia”
Focus: U.S. strategy to pressure Putin via tariffs on India and China
Highlights:
• Trump proposes broad tariffs on India and China as leverage over Putin.
• Reinforces the narrative of trade escalation as a geopolitical tool.
2. Economic Times / ANI — “Expert: Trump miscalculated leverage over India with tariffs”
Focus: Domestic geopolitical criticism of U.S. tariff strategy
Highlights:
• Expert David Goldwyn questions the effectiveness of sanctions against India.
• Denounces a hypocritical policy: harsh sanctions on India, suspension toward China.
3. Reuters (via Indian Express) — “India explores rare earth deal with Myanmar after China restriction”
Focus: Strategic alliances in technology and energy
Highlights:
• India seeks to secure rare-earth supplies for EVs and advanced industry.
• The deal shows how competition with China drives supplier diversification.
4. Reuters — “Asia stocks gain… traders consider odds of bigger Fed cut”
Focus: Financial market reaction to geopolitics and monetary policy
Highlights:
• Asian indices rise amid expectations of a Fed rate cut.
• Geopolitical risks—such as Russian drones in Poland or an Israeli strike in Qatar—pressure markets.
5. Washington Post — “Israeli strike in Qatar, Trump signature scrutiny, Russian drone activity escalate tensions”
Focus: Broad geopolitical overview centered on the Middle East and Western tensions
Highlights:
• Combines multiple fronts: Israeli strike in Qatar, legal scrutiny of Trump, rising Russian drone activity in Europe.
• Reflects a global environment shaped by multiple security flashpoints.
6. InvestingLive (Asia-Pacific FX news) — “Russian drone incursions into Poland jolted geopolitics”
Focus: Immediate geopolitical impact on FX markets and Asia
Highlights:
• Markets remained relatively stable, but Russian incursions heightened regional risk perception.
• Links the Poland incident with volatility across Asia-Pacific.
Key observations
• U.S. tariffs as a geopolitical tool: Bloomberg and ANI highlight the tension between strategic intent and perceived execution weaknesses.
• India’s strategic repositioning: The Myanmar rare-earth deal illustrates a practical response to Chinese pressure.
• Global financial volatility: Reuters and InvestingLive connect geopolitical events with market reactions, especially in Asia.
• Multiple simultaneous flashpoints: The Washington Post underscores a global landscape shaped by overlapping crises from the Middle East to Europe.