Geopolitical Analysis & Commentary by Gustavo de Arístegui

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GEOPOLITICS REPORT

By Gustavo de Arístegui,
February 12, 2026

I. BRIEF INTRODUCTION [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]

The latest 24-hour cycle confirms a world in which the major geopolitical vectors—the erosion of the liberal order, the authoritarian impulse, and the technological revolution—advance in parallel and, at times, in open collision. In Washington, Congress confronts the White House’s tariff protectionism while the hardline policy against drug trafficking coexists with temptations to close off international trade, a blatant contradiction with the Reagan era and the free-market principles that have underpinned Western success. In Asia, Bangladesh is attempting to forge a renewed democracy under the leadership of Generation Z, which has toppled an autocrat, while China struggles to consolidate its influence on the subcontinent, and the EU remains trapped in its bureaucratic labyrinth, lagging behind in the race for artificial intelligence and competitiveness.[4][5][8][9]

On the strategic front, Ukraine is holding on amid the anemia of US support and the growing—but still insufficient—efforts of its European allies, while Tehran doubles down on its defiance: refusing to negotiate its missile capabilities, keeping Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi imprisoned, and continuing to bury its nuclear program hundreds of meters underground, hidden from inspectors. Meanwhile, markets are pricing in a new phase of power concentration in the hands of tech giants—like Meta—fueled by AI, while a Spaniard, Belén Garijo, takes the helm of the French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi without a single twitch of the Spanish media, a worrying symptom of provincialism in news coverage. Faced with this scenario, an uncompromising defense of representative liberal democracy, Atlanticism, and free trade is essential, as is an unequivocal denunciation of dictatorships—whether they are called Caracas, Tehran, or Moscow—and their terrorist proxies.[2][3][5][6][7][8][10][11][12][1]


II. MOST IMPORTANT NEWS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS

1. The US House of Representatives challenges the tariff emergency against Canada

Facts 

The US House of Representatives has voted to end the national emergency that President Donald Trump invoked to impose tariffs on Canadian imports last year. The resolution, passed with the support of six Republican members of Congress along with the Democratic bloc, is a direct political rebuke of the White House’s tariff strategy. The measure now goes to the Senate, where its fate is uncertain, but the White House has already hinted that the president would use his veto power if it reaches his desk, underscoring the depth of the rift between the executive branch and parts of the legislature on international trade.[8]

Implications 

Tariff barriers and trade wars represent a historic setback in the political, economic, and civil liberties development of advanced democracies: they are not only bad for GDP, they are a direct attack on one of the essential pillars of the liberal order that emerged after 1945. Ronald Reagan expressed this with crystal clarity: free trade is not an ideological luxury, it is an indispensable ingredient for prosperity and the spread of freedoms. In that tradition—which runs from Reagan to the best of the classical Republican school—punitive tariffs on a key ally like Canada are a strategic blunder and a gift to Beijing and Moscow, delighted to see the West tear itself apart in internal trade wars. The House vote, therefore, represents a healthy gesture of institutional self-correction, a reminder that the balance of power works and that the United States is not condemned to succumb to short-sighted protectionist temptations.  

Perspectives and scenarios 

In the short term, the standoff between Congress and the White House will remain unresolved: a presidential veto is likely, but so too is the likelihood that the political costs of protectionism will continue to rise as farmers, manufacturers, and consumers feel the pinch of the “trade war” in their wallets. In the medium term, the crucial question will be whether the Republican Party is capable of intellectually rearming itself around the Reagan-era tradition of free trade, firmness against adversaries, and economic openness, or whether it will succumb to a toxic mix of isolationism and tariff populism. For Europe, the message is twofold: on the one hand, it is advisable to take advantage of the internal US debate to strengthen economic Atlanticism; on the other, it would be suicidal to respond to Washington’s protectionism with more European protectionism, because that would only make life more expensive for citizens and leave the field open to Chinese expansionism.  


2. Italy approves naval blockades against mass illegal immigration

Facts 

The Italian government has approved a bill authorizing the use of naval blockades to prevent migrants from entering by sea.  The measure, championed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, would be applied in situations of “waves” of irregular arrivals on Italian shores. This move coincides with the European Union’s approval earlier this week of new measures to expedite repatriations and strengthen the fight against illegal immigration in the Mediterranean.[13]

Implications 

Illegal, massive, and disorderly immigration represents an enormous challenge for advanced democratic societies and a real threat to social cohesion, security, and the stability of our systems of freedoms. Presenting it as some kind of inevitable phenomenon or as an ideological taboo is irresponsible and only fuels extremism—both left and right—and erodes the trust of the working class in liberal democracy. The response cannot be either naive idealism or xenophobic brutalism: what is needed are firm border control policies, effective repatriation agreements, a frontal assault on organized crime, and legal and orderly pathways for migration, especially for those fleeing dictatorships and wars. In this respect, the EU is late and inadequate; Italy, like other frontline countries, has too often been left to its own devices while Brussels got bogged down in semantic debates and toothless regulations.  

Perspectives and scenarios 

If Italian naval blockades are implemented without a robust European framework and a serious development policy in the countries of origin, they risk becoming a band-aid solution that will fuel radical rhetoric and tensions with NGOs and international organizations. But ignoring the problem would be even worse: the power vacuum at the borders will be filled by organized crime and populism. The only reasonable way out is a European pact that combines three elements: firm control of external borders, genuine internal solidarity among member states, and a cooperation strategy with Africa and the Middle East that addresses the root causes of migration flows. This is no easy task, but the alternative is a scenario of chronic migration chaos that will only benefit the enemies of liberal democracy and the ecosystem of jihadism.  


3. Washington and Tehran: Iran’s false nuclear restraint and the missile challenge

Facts 

After meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, President Donald Trump stated that “nothing definitive” had been decided on how to address the Iranian nuclear program, but that negotiations with the Islamic Republic would continue. In a speech marking the 47th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, the Iranian president declared his willingness to allow nuclear inspections and reiterated that Iran “is not building a nuclear weapon.” Meanwhile, Tehran has made it clear that it is not willing to negotiate its missile capabilities, emphasizing that its ballistic missile program is not up for discussion. [1]

Implications 

Netanyahu’s working visit to Washington has the essential objective of convincing Trump not to rule out the military option to ensure that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons. It is patently false that the Iranian nuclear program has an exclusively civilian purpose for three reasons that any honest observer knows:  

First: civilian power generation programs only require uranium enrichment of 5-6%, while the gas centrifuges of the abject jihadist and terrorist regime of the ayatollahs are designed to achieve enrichment levels above 90%, that is, the threshold necessary to manufacture nuclear weapons; Tehran managed to produce nearly 600 kilos of uranium enriched to almost 70%, material which, by all indications, the regime has put in safe keeping for an eventual sprint towards the bomb.[1]

Second: if the program were civilian, it would depend on the Ministry of Energy and not directly on the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard, which is the military and ideological heart of the system; no one buries an innocent energy project under layers of military opacity if they have nothing to hide.[1]

Third: if the ayatollahs’ nuclear program were truly civilian, the facilities would not be built hundreds of meters underground, in fortified complexes that only make sense as protection against possible military attacks or sabotage.[1]

Nothing good or honorable can be expected from a regime that combines totalitarian theocracy, the export of terrorism, and internal brutality. The only reasonable course of action is to maintain pressure, sanctions, and the credible threat of the legitimate use of force if it does not comply strictly with what is demanded of it: the unconditional renunciation of uranium enrichment beyond strictly civilian levels and, if it desires nuclear power plants, the acquisition of 5-6% enriched material on the regulated international market. Anything else is unacceptable. Iran must also renounce the manufacture of long-range ballistic missiles and cease financing, arming, and directing its proxy terrorist organizations in the Middle East and beyond: Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Shiite militias of Iraq, and their tentacles in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. The Tehran regime is a truly malignant virus with global reach; to deny, downplay, or relativize this is immoral.  

Perspectives and scenarios 

The most likely scenario is the prolongation of an unstable “non-peace”: negotiations that serve to buy time for the regime, a degree of tactical restraint to avoid a direct attack, and, in the meantime, discreet advances in centrifuges, missiles, and proxy networks. Only the combination of three elements—genuine Western unity, a credible military threat, and decisive public support for Iranian democrats—can alter this dynamic. If Washington hesitates and Europe resorts to diplomatic wishful thinking, the logical outcome in the medium term will be a nuclear-armed Iran, with de facto weapons capabilities, which will multiply its capacity to blackmail Israel, Arab countries, and global energy routes. This prospect is simply incompatible with the security of the Middle East and the stability of the global economy.  


4. Ackman bets heavily on Meta and AI: oxygen for the digital giant

Facts 

The Pershing Square fund, led by activist investor Bill Ackman, has disclosed a stake in Meta representing approximately 10% of the fund’s capital, or about $2 billion. Ackman argues that investor fears about Meta’s heavy spending on artificial intelligence have led to a serious undervaluation of the company, which he considers one of the “clearest beneficiaries” of AI integration. Meanwhile, Meta has announced the construction of a roughly $10 billion data center in Indiana, designed to provide up to one gigawatt of power to its AI workloads.[10][14][15][16][17][18][1]

Implications 

After months of uncertainty surrounding Meta’s future in a technology ecosystem where it seemed to be losing the AI ​​race, the public and decisive entry of an activist investor of Ackman’s caliber is a real lifeline for the company. It not only sends the market the message that the stock market punishment has been excessive, but also reinforces the idea that AI is not a laboratory whim, but rather the core of the next phase of monetization for major platforms—from personalized advertising to smart devices like connected glasses. This investment also underscores something that Europe seems unwilling to grasp: while the EU continues to draft regulations, the United States is building $10 billion data centers and channeling private capital into projects that will widen the competitive gap in the coming years.[9][14][10]

Perspectives and scenarios 

If Ackman’s thesis is confirmed, we will see a strengthened Meta, capable of capitalizing on AI on three fronts: internal efficiency (costs), new products, and expansion of its hardware and software ecosystem. For geoeconomic equilibrium, the relevant factor is not only the Meta case, but also the signal that Wall Street is willing to reward companies that invest heavily in AI, even at the expense of short-term margins. This leaves Europe facing an uncomfortable mirror: either there is a radical shift in mindset—more investment, more risk, less bureaucracy—or we will remain mired in technological irrelevance, commentating from the sidelines on the moves of others.  


5. Bangladesh: a historic choice after the generational revolution

Facts 

Bangladesh is holding landmark elections following the 2024 ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a Generation Z-led uprising. The country is going to the polls with high voter turnout and hopes of ushering in a period of greater stability and growth after months of protests and political violence. Simultaneously, a package of constitutional reforms is being put to a referendum. These reforms include the creation of a neutral interim government during election periods, the transformation of Parliament into a bicameral system, greater representation of women, the strengthening of judicial independence, and a two-term limit for the prime minister.[5][19][20][4]

Implications 

Bangladesh today offers one of the few positive narratives on a global stage dominated by authoritarian regressions: a youth rising up against corruption and cronyism, overthrowing a leader who had degenerated into an autocrat, and forcing the start of a process of institutional reform. It is, in a way, a reminder that liberal democracy is not a Western monopoly, but a universal aspiration that can take root in poor, densely populated, and vulnerable societies whenever there is civic courage and even a small window of opportunity. But it would be naive to ignore the power struggles surrounding Bangladesh: Hasina’s fall has strained ties with India and opened the door for China to try to consolidate its influence in the country, which is key to maritime routes and the balance of power in the Indian Ocean.[21][5]

Perspectives and scenarios 

The best-case scenario is that the elections are fair, the result is accepted by all parties, and the constitutional reforms lead to a more pluralistic system with checks and balances on executive power. If this happens, Bangladesh could become a hopeful case study for other Muslim and South Asian societies trapped in one-party authoritarian regimes. The worst-case scenario, on the other hand, would involve widespread allegations of fraud, a return to street violence, and a renewed militarization of politics, leaving the field open to Beijing’s interference and the geopolitical manipulation of the country. The West—and particularly the EU, so prone to pronouncements yet so reluctant to act—should become more involved in supporting this democratic experiment, because what is at stake is not only the stability of Bangladesh, but the global narrative between democracy and authoritarianism.  


6. Ukraine: US aid collapses and Europe tries – unsuccessfully – to plug the hole

Facts 

A recent report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy reveals that US military aid to Ukraine fell by 99% in 2025 compared to previous years. European contributions increased significantly—67% more in military aid and 59% more in financial and humanitarian support—to the point that the EU has become the main provider of economic and humanitarian assistance to Kyiv. However, the drop in US contributions has been so abrupt that, despite European efforts, the overall volume of military aid is still 13% below the annual average recorded between 2022 and 2024.[22][8]

Implications 

It has been made public that direct US aid to Ukraine has plummeted by 99% by 2025, but that European allies have relatively compensated for a substantial part of that shortfall. We cannot minimize the gravity of this news or its strategic implications. Europe has taken a step forward—led by Germany, the UK, and the Nordic countries—but it is still unable to fully replace the role of “arsenal of democracy” that the United States has played for decades. The Russian aggression against Ukraine is not a local conflict or a problem “between Slavs”; it is a frontal assault on the basic principle that borders cannot be changed by force and that no country can annex territory by cannon fire. Accepting the logic of faits accomplis would be the prelude to a more dangerous world, from the Baltic to the Indo-Pacific.[8][22]

Perspectives and scenarios 

If Washington doesn’t correct course and Europe doesn’t further increase its ambition, we risk sliding into a war of attrition in which Russia, with its war economy and repressed society, outlasts an exhausted Ukraine and a weary Western public opinion. The desirable scenario hinges on three factors: a political agreement in the US that unlocks new aid packages, a Europe that finally assumes its military responsibility—starting with Spain and Italy, currently falling glaringly short of what is required—and diplomatic pressure on the powers of the Global South to stop maintaining neutrality with an aggressor that systematically violates international law. If Ukraine falls or is forced to accept a peace dictated from Moscow, those next in line will realize that NATO and the EU are nothing more than paper tigers.  


7. The EU and the old disease of economic ineffectiveness in the face of the AI ​​revolution

Facts 

Several recent analyses—including a prominent article in The Economist—highlight that the European Union is grappling with long-standing economic problems (low productivity, regulatory fragmentation, lack of technological champions) and repeatedly resorting to the same solutions: more bureaucracy, more regulations, and less risk. While the United States still accounts for roughly a quarter of global GDP, the EU’s share has fallen over the past two decades, settling at around 14–15%, with significantly less dynamism than the US and Chinese economies. In the race for artificial intelligence, Europe has lagged behind in both cutting-edge models and cloud and data center infrastructure, although some reports indicate that enterprise adoption of generative AI is beginning to take off in certain Nordic countries.[23][24][9]

Implications 

We are faced with further evidence of the EU’s serious ineffectiveness, the rigidity and inefficiency of its bureaucracy, and its exasperating slowness to react. It is almost pathetic—not to say tragic—that the European Commission is now proclaiming its concern about losing economic influence to the United States… when we lost it at least twenty years ago. Back then, the EU and the US represented blocs close to 25% of global GDP; today, the United States still holds around that quarter of the pie, while the EU has slipped to 14%, trapped between complacency and ineffective interventionism. Most disheartening is hearing Brussels say it fears losing the artificial intelligence race: the bad joke is that we are not competing at the front of the pack, we are at the back of the pack, arguing about regulations while others are building data centers, models, and industrial ecosystems.[24][9][23]

Perspectives and scenarios 

Europe can still avoid irreversible irrelevance, but only if it breaks several taboos: increasing investment in defense and technology, reducing regulatory overreach, facilitating the creation of industrial champions, and ceasing to demonize business risk and profit. Otherwise, the “old continent” will become a vast theme park of dwindling prosperity, dependent on American and Chinese technologies, incapable of setting the agenda in either the cultural or economic battles. For a committed Atlanticist and Europeanist, the message is uncomfortable but necessary: ​​either the EU shakes off its bureaucratic lethargy and truly embraces the market economy and innovation, or our proud rhetoric of “regulatory power” will be little more than consolation for losers.  


8. The Nobel Committee demands the release of Narges Mohammadi, a symbol of the barbarity of the Iranian regime.

Facts 

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has officially called on Iran to immediately release Narges Mohammadi, a human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate currently imprisoned. Mohammadi, 53, has been repeatedly sentenced to prison for her advocacy of women’s rights and her opposition to the death penalty; she recently received a new sentence of seven and a half years. The Committee reports that she was violently arrested during the funeral of a human rights lawyer and is being subjected to inhuman and potentially deadly treatment.[6][7][12][25]

Implications 

Not a single relevant voice from the Western left has risen clearly and consistently in defense of Narges Mohammadi, nor has any forcefully condemned the bloody and brutal repression of the Iranian people’s protests. Silence. Cowardly silence in the face of a regime that imprisons, tortures, and executes women whose “crime” is demanding freedom, equality, and dignity. It is an unmitigated disgrace, and it also reveals the double standard of certain progressives who are outraged—rightly so—by injustices when the villain is Western, but look the other way when the executioner is Tehran, Caracas, or Havana. The Mohammadi case encapsulates everything we denounce about the ayatollahs’ regime: institutional misogyny, state terror, and absolute contempt for the most basic human rights.  

Perspectives and scenarios 

International pressure on Iran may, at best, marginally improve Mohammadi’s conditions or force his conditional release, but it will not change the nature of a system built on violence and theocracy. True change—if it comes at all—will come from within, from an Iranian society increasingly weary of dying for a medieval ideology. Meanwhile, our responsibility in the West is clear: do not whitewash the regime, support Iranian activists and exiles, and stop using the rhetoric of “constructive dialogue” to mask what is, quite simply, a terrorist dictatorship. Every time a European capital rolls out the red carpet for emissaries from Tehran without mentioning Mohammadi, the women killed in the protests, or the political prisoners, it sends the message that geopolitics outweighs human dignity. And that, besides being immoral, is strategic myopia.  


9. Sanofi appoints Spaniard Belén Garijo as its new CEO

Facts 

French pharmaceutical company Sanofi has announced the appointment of Spaniard Belén Garijo as its new chief executive officer, following its decision not to renew the mandate of current CEO Paul Hudson. Hudson will step down on February 17, and during the transition period, board member Olivier Charmeil will assume executive duties until Garijo officially takes over after the shareholders’ meeting on April 29. Garijo, born in Albacete, Spain, has extensive international experience in the pharmaceutical sector, having previously held top management positions at other multinational companies in the industry.[3][11][2]

Implications 

Belén Garijo, a Spaniard from Albacete, is about to become the CEO of one of the world’s leading pharmaceutical companies, one of the most influential players in the research, development, and production of life-saving medicines across five continents. And yet, she has barely warranted a mention—when not complete silence—in much of the Spanish press, which is more attentive to low-intensity partisan squabbles than to the business and professional success stories of our compatriots around the world. This is a worrying symptom of media provincialism and a political culture that disregards merit and quiet effort, while overrepresenting parliamentary bickering and empty talk shows. Garijo embodies precisely the opposite: a solid education, an international career, high-level management skills, and a vision of business as an engine of innovation and well-being, not as an enemy to be defeated.[2][3]

Perspectives and scenarios 

For Sanofi, his arrival could mark a new era of greater demands in strategic execution, consolidation of R&D, and strengthening of its global positioning in a hyper-competitive sector subject to intense regulatory pressure. For Spain, the appointment is a missed opportunity—at least for now—to showcase its own talent and send the message to new generations that it’s possible to compete at the highest global level without sacrificing one’s identity. It would be desirable for the Spanish media and political ecosystem to understand that international prestige isn’t built solely on summits and photo ops, but also on individuals like Garijo, whose track record contributes more to the “Spain” brand than many official slogans.  


10. Nobel Peace Prize, Iran and the selective hypocrisy of the West (extended summary)

Facts 

The Nobel Committee’s appeal on behalf of Narges Mohammadi adds to previous denunciations of her “brutal detention” and reports documenting ill-treatment, lack of adequate medical care, and new legal proceedings aimed at silencing her voice. The activist has become one of the most powerful symbols of Iranian civil resistance, alongside the young women who removed their veils in the streets shouting “woman, life, freedom,” defying a regime willing to fire on its own people.[12][25][6]

Implications 

The near-total absence of reaction from sectors of the Western left that proclaim themselves champions of feminism, human rights, and the fight against oppression is glaring. There are no mass demonstrations, no viral campaigns, no impassioned declarations in parliaments when the executioner is Tehran and the victim is an Iranian woman imprisoned, beaten, and sentenced to prison terms for questioning the theocracy. In moral terms, it is a scandal; and in political terms, it demonstrates that a certain segment of the left has lost its way, trapped in a hierarchy of outrage that depends less on the actual victims than on the identity of the oppressor. At the same time, regimes like those in Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba exploit this leniency to present themselves as “anti-imperialist” while they massacre their own people.  

Perspectives and scenarios 

If the West wants to preserve the credibility of its discourse in defense of human rights, it must begin by overcoming this double standard: it cannot denounce—rightly so—police excesses in liberal democracies and remain silent in the face of the systematic repression of theocratic and Marxist dictatorships. The cultural battle against relativism, the Wok movement, and cancel ideology also involves recovering a clear language about political good and evil: an imperfect democracy that corrects itself is not the same as a regime that shoots its citizens in the head to maintain power. Narges Mohammadi is not just an Iranian heroine; she is an uncomfortable mirror that forces us to ask ourselves how much of our supposed progressive sensibility is conviction and how much is pure posturing.  


III. MEDIA RACK (BLOCK SYNTHETIC VIEW)

| Block / Region | Predominant Media | Dominant Editorial Key                                                                                                      

| USA – Politics and Economics | NYT, Washington Post, WSJ, Financial Times, The Economist, CNN, Fox News, CNBC | Debate on protectionism vs. free trade, battles in Congress, the role of Big Tech and AI regulation. [1][9] |

| Europe – EU and political economy | The Times, Telegraph, Guardian, FT, Le Monde, FAZ, Die Welt, Die Zeit, La Repubblica | Concern over loss of economic weight, EU slowness, discussion on migration and energy security. [9][24] |

| Europe – Defense and Ukraine | BBC, Politico, The Hill, Reuters, AFP, AP, DPA, Nordic and German media | Coverage of the drop in US aid to Ukraine and the European effort to partially fill the gap. [8][22] |

| Middle East – Iran and security | Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, Iranian media and agencies | Nuclear tension, missiles, proxies and internal repression; focus on Narges Mohammadi and international pressure. [1][6][7] |

| Asia – South and Southeast | WION, The Times of India, Hindustan Times, SCMP, Bangladesh outlets, Reuters | Elections in Bangladesh, role of Generation Z, India-China competition for influence in the Indian Ocean. [4][5][21] |

| Markets and Industry | WSJ, FT, The Economist, CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters | Meta and AI, large data centers, Garijo’s appointment at Sanofi, bet on innovation vs. regulation. [1][10][2][3] |

This “rack” reflects a media ecosystem where three obsessions coexist: the struggle between protectionism and free trade, the clash between democracies and autocracies, and the redistribution of economic power around artificial intelligence and the energy transition. In this noise, we run the risk of normalizing the unacceptable—from Russian aggression in Ukraine to the barbarity of the Iranian regime—and of losing sight of the common thread: without Atlanticism, without the rule of law, and without an open market economy, the Western project unravels.[9][8]


IV. RISK TRAFFIC LIGHT

– 🔴  Iran’s nuclear and missile escalation 

High and immediate   risk : refusal to negotiate missile capabilities, history of enrichment above civilian levels, use of proxies (Hizbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Shia militias) and brutal internal repression; an explosive combination for regional stability and global energy security.[1][2][3][4]

– 🔴  Ukrainian resilience and Western fatigue 

High   risk : a 99% collapse in US military aid by 2025, growing but still insufficient European effort, and a real danger of a war of attrition favorable to Moscow if the course is not corrected in Washington and several European capitals.[5][6][7][8]

– 🟠  Economic and technological degradation of the EU 

Medium-high   risk : loss of relative weight in global GDP, delay in AI and tendency to respond with more regulation and less investment; problem still reversible, but the window is narrowing dangerously.[9][10][11]

– 🟠  Migration crisis in the Mediterranean 

Medium-high   risk : Measures such as the Italian naval blockades, without a solid European framework and without a serious policy at the source, can become a band-aid that fuels extremism and erodes social cohesion in leading European democracies.[12][13]

– 🟠  Global democratic backsliding (with a focus on Asia and the post-Soviet space) 

Medium-high   risk : hopeful developments such as Bangladesh coexist with the consolidation of authoritarian regimes and Russian aggression in Ukraine; the balance remains fragile and vulnerable to public fatigue.[7][14][15][16]

– 🟠  Governance of the AI ​​revolution 

Mixed   risk (opportunity + threat): enormous potential for growth and productivity, but also concentration of power in a few actors and the risk that the EU will fall structurally behind the US and China if it does not correct its regulatory inertia.[10][17][18][1]

– 🟢  European business leadership (Sanofi–Garijo case) 

  Low risk / high opportunity : the appointment of Belén Garijo shows that Europe can still generate and attract top-level managerial talent; the problem is not a lack of figures, but their limited visibility and support within the political and media ecosystem itself.[19][20][21]


V. EDITORIAL COMMENTARY

We are living in a time when the classic coordinates of geopolitics—territory, military power, economic influence—are intertwined with a hidden cultural battle being waged in universities, the media, and social networks. And in this battle, too many in the West have chosen to disarm themselves voluntarily, abandoning the unapologetic defense of representative liberal democracy, free trade, the market economy, and the legacy—imperfect, yes, but exemplary—of transitions like Spain’s. Meanwhile, the enemies of freedom—from Moscow to Tehran, from Caracas to Beijing—do not hesitate for a second to use every weapon at their disposal, from propaganda to kamikaze drones, including terrorism and wars of aggression.[5][8]

The contrast between the energy of Bangladeshi youth, who risk their lives to open a democratic horizon, and the apathy of some of our Western elites toward the plight of Narges Mohammadi or Iranian women is particularly painful. It is a bitter irony that certain supposedly progressive currents in Europe and the United States obsess over semantic battles, microaggressions, and identity performances, while maintaining almost complete silence in the face of the stoning, imprisonment, and torture of women who demand the most basic thing: not to be second-class citizens under a medieval theocracy. That is the essence of the moral relativism we reject: measuring injustice according to who commits it, not who suffers it.[25][5]

In economic terms, the disconnect between European discourse and reality is glaring. We lament the “loss of influence” to the United States, but we missed the boat on productivity, innovation, and now artificial intelligence two decades ago. While the Commission busies itself designing new layers of regulation and displaying rhetorical Europeanism, Washington and its corporations—from Meta to the major pharmaceutical groups—are building the data centers, laboratories, and platforms that will define the 21st century. Being both Atlanticist and European is not a contradiction: it is understanding that the only way for Europe to remain relevant is to embrace the basic rules of Western success—economic freedom, legal certainty, open trade—and abandon the moral superiority complex that masks our inertia.[10][24][2][9]

Regarding the United States, it is legitimate and necessary to be critical of Trump’s protectionist tendencies and the isolationist drift of a segment of the Republican Party, because trade wars are, as Reagan said, a self-inflicted wound to freedom and prosperity. But it is also fair to acknowledge that, in foreign policy, the firm stance against drug trafficking and the rejection of socialist experiments—from Chavismo to Castroism—have brought a dose of realism that was lacking in certain previous administrations. The key lies in upholding the best of the classic Republican tradition—free trade, a robust defense, and moral leadership—without falling into the extremes of either the nativist right or the woke left.  

Finally, the case of Belén Garijo at the helm of Sanofi should serve as a wake-up call for us as a country. A serious democracy that claims to be modern and pro-European should celebrate and amplify the success of a Spanish woman who leads one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, not relegate it to a footnote amidst partisan bickering and television spectacle. Defending the mainstream—the wisdom of center-right liberal democracy, the open economy, and equality without ideological fanaticism—also requires upholding merit, effort, and quiet excellence. Faced with those who want to turn politics into a war of identity politics or a marketplace of slogans, it is worth remembering that the true strength of our societies lies in something much simpler: respect for the law, the centrality of the individual, a market economy, and a well-managed welfare state, not one ruined by the experiments of the radical left. That is the battle worth fighting, every single day. [3][2]

Sources

[1] Bill Ackman reveals stake in Meta, says it has ‘deeply discounted… https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/bill-ackman-meta-valuation.html

[2] Sanofi appoints Belén Garijo as new CEO after deciding … https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/sanofi-appoints-bel-n-garijo-new-ceo-deciding-renew-current/

[3] Sanofi appoints Belén Garijo as new CEO after deciding … https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/sanofi-appoints-beln-garijo-new-ceo-after-deciding-not-renew-current-ceo-hudsons-2026-02-12/

[4] ‘A festival’: High turnout as Bangladeshis vote in landmark… https://www.reuters.com/world/china/bangladesh-votes-landmark-election-after-gen-z-revolution-2026-02-11/

[5] Bangladesh votes in landmark election after Gen Z revolution | WKZO https://wkzo.com/2026/02/11/bangladesh-votes-in-landmark-election-after-gen-z-revolution/

[6] Narges Mohammadi: Nobel Committee Demands Her Release Now https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/nobel-committee-calls-iran-free-peace-prize-laureate/

[7] Nobel committee calls on Iran to free Peace Prize laureate … https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/02/nobel-committee-calls-iran-free-peace-prize-laureate-mohammadi

[8] US military aid to dropped Ukraine 99% in 2025, report finds https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-military-aid-ukraine-dropped-195934821.html

[9] Europe can still win the other AI race – The Economist https://www.economist.com/business/2026/01/22/europe-can-still-win-the-other-ai-race

[10] Meta’s Indiana AI data center: 3 key details to know – Yahoo Finance https://finance.yahoo.com/video/metas-indiana-ai-data-center-210142910.html

[11] Press Release: Belén Garijo to become Chief Executive Officer of Sanofi https://finance.yahoo.com/news/press-release-bel-n-garijo-063000809.html

[12] Nobel Peace Prize committee condemns “brutal” arrest of Iranian laureate Narges Mohammadi https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/nobel-peace-prize-committee-condemns-brutal-arrest-iranian-laureate-narges-2025-12-12/

[13] The Economist | Go beyond breaking news https://www.economist.com

[14] Bill Ackman’s Hedge Fund Reveals Big Stake in Meta https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-ackman-pershing-square-meta-stake-2026-2

[15] Meta stock slips after-hours as $10 billion Indiana AI data center … https://www.bez-kabli.pl/meta-stock-slips-after-hours-as-10-billion-indiana-ai-data-center-plan-sharpens-focus-on-spending/

[16] Bill Ackman Takes Stake In Meta, Flags’ Significant Upside Potential… https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/bill-ackman-takes-stake-in-meta-flags-significant-upside-potential-from-ai/cZb6o8IR4AW

[17] Bill Ackman Takes Stake In Meta, Flags’ Significant Upside… https://newsable.asianetnews.com/markets/bill-ackman-takes-stake-in-meta-flags-significant-upside-potential-from-ai-articleshow-0f3hx4h

[18] Ackman’s Hedge Fund Pershing Square Bets on Meta, Exits Hilton https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-02-11/ackmans-hedge-fund-pershing-square-bets-on-meta-exits-hilton

[19] ‘A Festival’: Bangladesh Votes With Hope in Landmark… https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-02-11/bangladesh-votes-in-landmark-election-after-gen-z-revolution

[20] Bangladesh votes in landmark election after Gen Z uprising https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHW_GscFLyk

[21] Bangladesh’s Gen Z voters pin hopes on jobs, governance and freedom https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bangladeshs-gen-z-voters-pin-hopes-jobs-governance-freedom-2026-02-11/

[22] Ukraine Support Tracker: Europe fails to offset US aid drop https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-tracker-europe-fails-to-offset-us-aid-drop/

[23] Risto Uuk’s Post https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ristouuk_interesting-piece-in-the-economist-about-activity-7422186713533386752-IaKX

[24] Chinese AI is a risk for Europe. So is shunning it https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/01/22/chinese-ai-is-a-risk-for-europe-so-is-shunning-it

[25] Nobel Committee Calls on Iran to Free Peace Prize Laureate Mohammadi https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-02-11/nobel-committee-calls-on-iran-to-free-peace-prize-laureate-mohammadi

[26] Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Discloses New Stake in Meta https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/bill-ackman-s-pershing-square-discloses-new-major-stake-in-meta

[27] Polls open in Bangladesh’s landmark election after Gen Z… https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW480112022026RP1/

[28] Bangladeshis lined up foreign polling… https://www.facebook.com/Reuters/videos/bangladesh-votes-in-landmark-election-after-gen-z-uprising/2405010163284294/

[29] US military aid to Ukraine down 99% in 2025, EU support up 67% https://www.facebook.com/ukrnewsfeed/posts/us-military-aid-to-ukraine-down-99-in-2025-eu-support-up-67-ukraine-support-trac/122158131776654935/

[30] Polls open in Bangladesh’s landmark election after Gen Z… https://www.reuters.com/video/world-news/


KEY POINTS OF THE DAY BY JOSE A. VIZNER