By Gustavo de Arístegui
GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN DEVELOPMENTS UP TO THE EARLY HOURS OF SEPTEMBER 2, 2025
1) Eurasia / SCO Summit and Hybrid Warfare
Summary: Tianjin consolidates the multipolar stage-setting (Xi–Putin–Modi) while the EU reports that Ursula von der Leyen’s aircraft suffered GPS jamming over Bulgaria. The gray zone of the feared hybrid war is now also affecting European civil aviation.
The SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) met in Tianjin with the presence of Xi, Putin, and Modi. Beijing is projecting an economic and financial umbrella alternative to the dollar in order to take another step in challenging U.S. dominance, as well as to attract all regimes considered pariahs or outside the law by most Western powers. The whitewashing of Iran and Russia, and the counteroffensive against secondary punitive tariffs, are a wake-up call for the United States and the EU: pariah states can survive in the 21st century even under Western sanctions and opprobrium.
For its part, Moscow wraps this in the narrative of “indivisible security.” Putin boasts of “understandings” with Trump at the Alaska summit (August 15) as a prelude to a political path for Ukraine, implying that he will get his way without making significant concessions.
India maintains its balancing act: strategic autonomy with three-way dialogue. Prime Minister Modi has let his aides know that he is outraged with Trump. The media have even been told that Modi has not taken Trump’s calls on four occasions. India’s relationship with Russia goes back a long way, and Russian support for India in its wars against Pakistan is not forgotten in that country. Pushing India into Russia’s arms and giving both Asian giants a reason to smooth over their many tensions (India and China have fought an open war and have very serious territorial disputes) is an immense geostrategic blunder. Equal to, or worse than, what Trump criticized in Alaska regarding Europeans provoking a Sino-Russian rapprochement. India was seen as a containment wall against China (something they detest, as they are fiercely independent and do not see themselves as allies of anyone). In fact, the BRICS had not evolved precisely because of the deep rivalry between China and India. Thanks to secondary punitive tariffs against China and India, the Trump Administration is going to trigger a geopolitical earthquake without recent precedent.
In parallel, Brussels confirms that Ursula von der Leyen’s aircraft lost satellite signal due to GPS interference while approaching Plovdiv (Bulgaria). The European executive points to Russia. The plane landed using terrestrial navigation and non-automated procedures. This is a serious episode that adds to the growing list of jamming and spoofing incidents attributed to Russia on the EU’s eastern periphery.
Key data: The Council and the Commission speak of “GPS jamming” and suspect Russian interference. The aircraft landed safely in Plovdiv.
2) Gaza / Extended Middle East
Summary: Famine is “confirmed” by the IPC system in the Gaza governorate and is expected to spread to the center and south. The Houthis launch a missile at the tanker Scarlet Ray near Yanbu. Academics from the IAGS state that the legal definition of genocide is met (Israel denies it).
The IPC (UN and agencies) declared Phase 5 – Famine with “reasonable evidence” in the Gaza governorate and foresees its extension to Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis. WHO and OCHA align figures and call for full access. This represents a qualitative leap on the humanitarian front.
The IAGS (International Association of Genocide Studies) approved a resolution stating that the military campaign “meets the legal definition of genocide.” Israel categorically rejects the accusation. The reputational and legal confrontation escalates. Belgium announced that it will recognize the Palestinian State at the UN General Assembly this September and will impose sanctions on Israel.
The situation in Gaza is dramatic, and the total destruction of all buildings in Gaza or the famine caused either as a strategy, through incompetence, or a mixture of both, is absolutely condemnable. A completely different matter is confusing the terms. There is a difference between war crimes (we could be facing actions that fall under this definition) or ethnic cleansing (another crime against humanity), but genocide is something else. The use and abuse of the term leads to the trivialization of the gravest genocides in history, starting with the Holocaust.
The regional ripple continues: the Houthis claim responsibility for a missile attack on the oil tanker Scarlet Ray (no damage), a rare attack off Yanbu (Saudi coast). The aim of the attack is to disrupt maritime energy routes as well as freight traffic in the Red Sea. In Yemen, rebels also raided UN offices and detained at least 11 employees following recent Israeli strikes on their leadership.
New development in recent hours: the “Global Sumud Flotilla” attempted to depart from Barcelona toward Gaza. Rough seas forced it to return and postpone departure. Political extremism does not sit well with solidarity. It contaminates everything, and all one can see is the craving for attention of histrionic “activists” such as Greta Thunberg, who seek only personal promotion rather than the well-being of Palestinians. Too many public figures briefly appear at tragedies, take the photo, and then move on to the next photo opportunity.
Key data: Famine (IPC Phase 5) is already occurring in Gaza. Failed Houthi missile attack against the tanker Scarlet Ray near Yanbu (Saudi coast).
3) Ukraine and the European Front
Summary: Extraordinary NATO–Ukraine Council meeting after new bombardments. Paris convenes around 30 countries of the “coalition of the willing” this Thursday to discuss post-war security guarantees. Putin invokes the “understandings” from Alaska.
At Kyiv’s request, NATO held an emergency meeting of the NATO–Ukraine Council following the latest massive Russian attacks (missiles and drones). Kyiv reiterates Patriot systems and long-range capabilities as priorities.
The Paris meeting (Thursday), co-chaired by Macron and Starmer with Zelensky, will aim to flesh out the framework of guarantees: training, financing, ISR, and multinational deterrence “post-agreement.” This is the institutional piece that was missing should a ceasefire mature.
From Tianjin, Putin stated that the “understandings” with Trump in Alaska (August 15) “open the path” to peace, although the summit closed without any agreements. The prevailing reading is that Moscow gains narrative room while maintaining its maximalist demands.
Key data: Paris brings together around 30 countries on Thursday to outline guarantees for Ukraine. The NATO–Ukraine Council met on September 1.
4) Indo-Pacific / Technological War
Summary: Washington revokes exemptions for Samsung and SK Hynix regarding equipment in China. They must apply for licenses (no expansion or upgrades). Declines in Seoul and a signaling effect across the memory supply chain.
The U.S. Department of Commerce withdrew the waivers that allowed Samsung and SK Hynix to import U.S. equipment for their fabs in China without individual licenses. A 120-day window opens and, according to the regulator itself, future licenses would allow operations but not expansion or modernization. Markets reacted: SK Hynix down about 5 percent, Samsung down about 2 to 3 percent. This strains China’s DRAM and NAND footprint and gives breathing room to Micron.
From a geopolitical perspective, the measure coincides with the SCO summit in Tianjin, where Xi and Modi display pragmatic thawing and selective cooperation, while both assess the costs of technological fragmentation.
Key data: The U.S. revokes authorizations. Seoul reacts: SK Hynix −4.8 percent and Samsung −around 3 percent on the day.
5) Economy, Energy, and Cyber Risks
Summary: Brent closes in the roughly 67–68 dollar range and the UK manufacturing PMI falls to 47.0. Europe accelerates energy resilience against cyber and hybrid threats (cables, pipelines, power grids, GPS).
Oil trades stable to firm, with closing references around 68 dollars for Brent and 64–65 dollars for WTI. Factors include a slightly weaker dollar and geopolitical risk (Red Sea and Black Sea).
The UK manufacturing PMI (August) registers 47.0, indicating contraction. Orders and exports are weak, with cost pressures and tariffs weighing.
Energy security and cyber risks: Brussels and European think tanks warn of hybrid threats (GPS, submarine cables, oil and gas pipelines) and call for greater resilience in generation and networks. The Wall Street Journal and the EU document rising risk, including Russian campaigns, and recommend tougher regulation, exercises, and intelligence sharing.
Key data: Brent around 68.1 dollars. UK PMI 47.0. The EU raises the bar on cyber protection of electrical and energy infrastructure.
6) Ibero-America
Summary: The decisive phase of Bolsonaro’s trial over the January 8 plot begins. In Argentina, Milei navigates between adjustment, social pressures, and the new IMF program (20 billion dollars) in a highly volatile political autumn.
Brazil’s Supreme Court enters the final stage of the trial of Jair Bolsonaro over the alleged plan to overturn the 2022 elections. Hearings resume today, Tuesday, with a panel of five judges and significant conviction scenarios. Regional context: a test of institutional resilience amid social polarization.
In Argentina, macroeconomic realignment continues following the 20 billion dollar EFF agreement with the IMF (initial disbursement of 12 billion dollars in April and subsequent reviews). At the same time, social fronts grow and political noise increases ahead of the provincial electoral cycle.
Key data: Brazil: verdict and sentencing phase of the January 8 case this week. Argentina: IMF program of 20 billion dollars in force with strong conditionality.
Editorial Close
- Tianjin sets the tempo: multipolarity and China’s ambition to become the leader of the Global South and to confront the United States, the West, and their allies head-on.
- No progress toward a Ukraine–Russia peace agreement, and worrying signs of intensified Russian hybrid warfare against the EU.
- Gaza enters famine (IPC level 5 out of 5).
- The Red Sea once again becomes a geopolitical hotspot: Houthis attack, unsuccessfully, a tanker off the Saudi coast.
- NATO–Ukraine emergency meeting. Paris attempts to define guarantees on Thursday.
- Chips: the U.S. tightens rules on Samsung and SK Hynix, with stock market and supply chain impacts.
- Markets: Brent around 68 dollars. UK PMI 47.0. Europe accelerates cyber-energy hardening.
- Ibero-America: Bolsonaro trial enters its decisive stretch. Argentina–IMF continues to shape macroeconomic policy despite significant improvements in inflation and other macro indicators.