By Gustavo de Arístegui, as published by Negocios.
December 10, 2025
I. BRIEF INTRODUCTION
The international scene over the past 24 hours has been dominated by three main vectors:
- The White House’s attempt to lock in a simultaneous framework for peace in Ukraine and Gaza.
- The fragility of the global economy on the eve of new central bank decisions.
- The silent — yet constant — erosion of authoritarian regimes in the post-Soviet space and Latin America.
Major Anglo-Saxon and European media, whether right or left of center, agree that we are living in a moment of “high risk, high opportunity.” Windows are opening to consolidate pressure on Russia, Tehran and their proxies, even as the global economy walks a tightrope that is more political than strictly macroeconomic.
In this arena, Trump acts with his usual mix of raw pragmatism and electoral calculation: toughness against narcotics and authoritarian revisionism, but without launching classic military adventures his base is unwilling to pay for, either in blood or taxes. At the same time, Zelensky tries to square a peace plan that preserves Ukraine’s territorial integrity in the face of impatience from some Western capitals, even as Moscow presses on the front and radicalizes its domestic regime.
In Gaza, the ceasefire is fragile: there are mutual accusations of violations and a humanitarian crisis that brutally affects children. The Indo-Pacific is experiencing a dangerous escalation, with joint Russian-Chinese patrols around Japan, while AUKUS advances and the region consolidates as the epicenter of the new technological and military Cold War.
In the Caribbean, the U.S. campaign against Venezuelan narcotrafficking speedboats has become a symbol of a new strategy of total pressure on the abhorrent Chavista regime. Running beneath all of this is the technological and cultural battle: Australia’s decision to ban social networks for under-16s, the debate over Nvidia chips, massive investments in India, and Western media space increasingly contaminated by wokism and identity extremism.
In this context, our compass remains clear: firm Atlanticism, committed Europeanism, frontal rejection of narco-Chavismo and all dictatorships — especially those of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela — opposition to Russian aggression in Ukraine, permanent vigilance against Chinese expansionism, and unambiguous condemnation of jihadist terrorism in all its forms.
II. THE 10 MOST IMPORTANT NEWS ITEMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS
1. Ukraine — Between its “refined” proposal and a 20-point peace plan
Facts
Ukraine, together with several European partners, is preparing a “refined” peace proposal to present in Washington, focused on eastern Donbas, the future size of its army, and future security guarantees. At the same time, Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, has returned to Moscow to submit the latest version of the 20-point peace plan to Putin, after intense consultations with Kyiv and European capitals. The circulating outline proposes a ceasefire along current front lines without formal recognition of Russian annexations but with significant de facto concessions in exchange for strengthened security guarantees for Ukraine and a conditional reconstruction package. Many analysts consider this design overly generous to Moscow.Implications
From an Atlanticist and liberal center-right perspective, the risk is clear: enshrining de facto territorial gains achieved through military aggression would send the message that force pays, undermine decades of international law, and reward authoritarian revisionism. The red line must be unequivocal: no agreement can normalize Russian occupation or leave Ukraine without tough guarantees tied to NATO and a “coalition of the willing” capable of deterring future Kremlin offensives. The goal is not to humiliate Russia, but to prevent a kleptocratic, expansionist regime from redrawing Europe’s borders with tanks, missiles and mercenaries. The false “realism” that invites acceptance of Putinism in exchange for an illusion of stability is not prudence; it is an invitation to future aggression, from the Baltics to the Black Sea.
2. Gaza — Fragile ceasefire and an uneasy peace under construction
Facts
In Gaza, a “first phase” of ceasefire holds: staggered withdrawal of Israeli forces to a negotiated “yellow line,” release of hostages in exchange for mass releases of Palestinian prisoners, and direct U.S. supervision on the ground. Hamas alleges hundreds of supposed violations of the agreement by Israel, while the Israeli government accuses the organization of attacks against its troops and justifies retaliatory operations. In Cairo and other Arab capitals, discussions continue about post-Hamas governance involving non-jihadist Palestinian factions with key roles for Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. UNICEF and humanitarian agencies warn of “shockingly high” child malnutrition despite an increase in relative aid.Implications
From an editorial perspective that is openly opposed to Islamist terrorism, the key is to prevent this uneasy peace from becoming a mere technical pause that allows Hamas to rearm under another banner. Any governance formula for Gaza must exclude pro-Iranian militias, cut off funding from Tehran and Doha, and preserve Israel’s right to defend itself. This does not exclude, but rather requires, a horizon of a viable, de-radicalized Palestinian state with institutions accountable to its people, not to ayatollahs. The narrative portraying Hamas as “resistance” and Israel as the sole aggressor is a dangerous caricature that betrays both Israeli victims and Palestinians who want to live in peace and freedom.
3. Russia — War of attrition, deepening authoritarianism and coordination with China in the Indo-Pacific
Facts
Within Russia, Putin’s regime deepens its personalization of power: mechanisms for direct election of mayors are dismantled, presidential control over the judiciary is reinforced, and uncomfortable partial elections in the Duma are canceled. On the front lines, Russian forces make limited advances in areas such as Lyman and Pokrovsk, while Ukraine counterattacks in Zaporiya and Oleksandrivka. All this unfolds alongside peace negotiations, revealing Moscow’s strategy: gain ground meter by meter while exploiting Western war fatigue. Internationally, Russian TU-95 bombers have participated in joint patrols with Chinese aircraft around Japan, prompting Japanese fighters to scramble. The U.S. has reiterated its support for Tokyo, while Australia advances in the AUKUS program to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.Implications
Normalizing Putinism in exchange for apparent peace is reckless. Accepting that a regime that represses its people, kills opponents, manipulates elections and attacks its neighbors receives geopolitical reward sends the message that autocrats benefit from violence. Military coordination between Russia and China around Japan shows the challenge is systemic; there are no watertight compartments between the Ukrainian front and the Indo-Pacific. If Ukraine settles for an unjust peace, Beijing and other actors will conclude that the West is unwilling to pay the price of defending the liberal order based on rules.
4. Armed clash between Thailand and Cambodia — A test for ASEAN
Facts
Fighting between Thailand and Cambodia has continued for a third consecutive day, with artillery exchanges, naval operations and population displacements in border areas. Both governments claim to be defending “territorial integrity” and “planned operations,” while ASEAN expresses concern about the impact on regional stability and trade. Trump has announced he will intervene personally, recalling that he previously stopped a similar escalation with a combination of direct pressure and diplomatic calls.
Implications
The crisis fits a known pattern: historical territorial disputes, national elites needing to reaffirm themselves to public opinion, and a vacuum of international arbitration that powers like China can exploit to offer interested mediation. Western diplomacy must support ASEAN dispute resolution mechanisms, bolster political presence, and offer an alternative to China’s financial leverage and veto. The Indo-Pacific risks becoming a mosaic of frozen conflicts where Beijing expands influence, port by port and base by base.
5. Venezuela — Speedboats, cocaine, and total pressure on narco-Chavismo
Facts
U.S. forces intercepted several high-speed boats loaded with cocaine in the Caribbean, allegedly linked to Venezuelan criminal networks operating with protection from the regime. Washington officials describe these operations as part of a broader strategy to dismantle narcotrafficking routes that finance Chavista elites and allied guerrilla groups. The Maduro regime denounces “imperialist aggression,” while internally it intensifies repression against opposition figures, journalists and NGOs.
Implications
The facts reinforce what has long been evident: Venezuela functions as a narco-state where trafficking, corruption and political power are fused. A firm response is not optional but necessary. Any attempt to “normalize” relations without dismantling the criminal structures of Chavismo would legitimize a regime sustained by drug money and repression. Pressure must be comprehensive: sanctions, judicial cooperation, maritime control and diplomatic isolation, combined with clear support for democratic forces inside and outside the country. There can be no moral equivalence between a criminal dictatorship and those who resist it peacefully.
6. Global economy — Central banks, political uncertainty and fragile growth
Facts
Markets are bracing for new decisions from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank amid mixed signals: moderating inflation, but persistent structural weaknesses in growth. Energy prices remain volatile due to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, while emerging markets face renewed pressure from capital outflows. China shows signs of stagnation, and its attempts at stimulus have yet to restore confidence.Implications
Economic fragility is no longer a purely technical issue; it is deeply geopolitical. Sanctions, wars, supply-chain reconfiguration and demographic decline intersect with political instability. Governments that promise painless solutions are misleading their citizens. Fiscal discipline, strategic autonomy in energy and technology, and transatlantic coordination are indispensable to avoid a new cycle of crises that would fuel populism and authoritarian temptations.
7. Australia — Social networks, minors and the cultural battle
Facts
Australia has announced restrictions on access to social networks for minors under 16, arguing the need to protect mental health and social development. The measure has sparked intense debate about freedom of expression, parental responsibility and the power of tech platforms. Similar initiatives are being studied in Europe and parts of North America.
Implications
This debate goes beyond technology. It touches the core of how democratic societies transmit values, protect children and balance liberty with responsibility. Leaving education and identity formation entirely in the hands of algorithms designed to maximize engagement is not neutrality; it is abdication. Regulation must be smart, proportionate and respectful of freedoms, but inaction is not an option.
8. Technology — Nvidia, chips and strategic dependence
Facts
Discussions continue in Washington and Brussels over export controls on advanced Nvidia chips and other critical technologies destined for China. At the same time, massive investments are being announced in India to build alternative manufacturing and innovation hubs. The race for artificial intelligence leadership intensifies.
Implications
Technology is now a central axis of power. Dependence on authoritarian regimes for critical components is a strategic vulnerability. Diversification, friend-shoring and sustained investment in research are not protectionism; they are common sense in an era of systemic rivalry. Losing the technological edge would mean losing political autonomy.
9. Latin America — Democratic erosion and selective indignation
Facts
From Nicaragua to Cuba, repression deepens with new arrests of dissidents and further restrictions on civil liberties. Some regional governments remain silent or issue lukewarm statements, while being vocal critics of democratic shortcomings elsewhere.
Implications
Selective indignation undermines credibility. Human rights are not ideological property. Democracies must speak with the same clarity against all dictatorships, regardless of their rhetoric or alliances. Silence in the face of tyranny is complicity.
10. The West — Identity extremism and strategic distraction
Facts
Western public debate continues to be dominated by identity conflicts that often crowd out discussions on security, defense and geopolitics. Universities, media outlets and cultural institutions are increasingly polarized, affecting their ability to serve as spaces of rational debate.
Implications
A society absorbed in internal cultural wars is less capable of responding to external threats. Defending liberal democracy requires confidence in shared principles: freedom of expression, equality before the law, and reasoned debate. Without them, strategic clarity dissolves.
III. FINAL REFLECTION
We are entering a decisive phase. Peace initiatives, economic decisions and cultural debates converge in a moment that will define the coming decade. The temptation to choose comfort over principle is strong, but history shows it is also costly.
The defense of freedom, sovereignty and the rule of law demands consistency, courage and a long-term vision. There are no shortcuts, and there are no neutral positions when faced with aggression, terrorism and dictatorship.