By Gustavo de Arístegui, as published in Negocios.
December 22, 2025

I. BRIEF INTRODUCTION

The international chessboard enters Christmas week with a common denominator: power politics has returned, fueled by two corrosive forces: Western fatigue and the audacity of revisionists. In Florida, the question is whether the United States seeks a meaningful peace or merely a facade; in the Caribbean, Washington is tightening the screws on the Venezuelan narco-dictatorship with real maritime interdiction, not just statements; in Asia, Japan is crossing an energy Rubicon that Europe views with the mental disarray of green dogma; and in the Middle East, faits accomplis—settlements—are piling up, narrowing the political path forward, while Gaza remains an operational and narrative battleground.

The United States is reinforcing the maritime blockade of the Chavista narco-regime; Washington notes that Putin’s war objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged despite Florida’s contacts; Japan crosses the nuclear Rubicon with the reopening of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa; Nigeria closes one of the most serious mass kidnappings in recent years; Pyongyang has the audacity to lecture on nuclear proliferation while Israel formalizes 19 new settlements in the West Bank, defying the international community. The chessboard is tightening: Washington is increasing pressure on dictatorships and revisionist powers, while the margins for a just peace in Ukraine and for stability in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific are narrowing. The world enters Christmas without a geopolitical truce, amidst the crackdown on drug cartels, the reconfiguration of the nuclear map, and the open struggle between liberal democracies and aggressive autocracies. [reuters +12]

In short, three vectors define the international pulse: the United States’ maximum pressure offensive against the Maduro narco-regime and its partners, the realization that Putin maintains his imperial project in Ukraine and Eastern Europe intact, and Japan’s nuclear shift as a response to an increasingly hostile strategic environment. Added to this is a wave of potentially destabilizing decisions: the expansion of Israeli settlements to undermine any viable Palestinian state, nuclear tensions in Northeast Asia, and the obscene normalization of violence against children and schools in the Sahel. The result is an increasingly fragmented international system, with Western democracies on the defensive in the cultural and strategic battle against autocracies that play without inhibitions or scruples. [cbsnews +7]

In this world, deterrence is not an academic concept: it is the boundary between the peace of the brave and the peace of the cemeteries.

II. MOST IMPORTANT NEWS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS

1. US pursues third oil tanker linked to sanctions evasion against Venezuela

Facts.

The U.S. Coast Guard is actively pursuing a third oil tanker near Venezuela. Reuters places the incident within a sustained campaign against the opaque export network that sustains the regime, linked to the “dark fleet”: routes designed to obscure traceability, labyrinthine intermediaries, and corporate opacity to evade sanctions. 

Implications.

This is not a mere gesture; it is a policy of operational strangulation. It strikes where it hurts: the circuit that transforms crude oil into cash to sustain repression, patronage, and criminal networks. It increases the cost of transportation and insurance, raises the criminal risk for shipowners and brokers, and forces Caracas to depend even more on malign actors and increasingly murky channels. The risk of an asymmetric response exists—instrumentalized migration, border tensions, the activation of illicit economies—but the cost of inaction is greater: leaving the clandestine economy of the narco-state untouched. 

2. Florida/Miami: Contacts for Ukraine; the Kremlin scorns European and Ukrainian amendments

Facts.

Contacts are taking place in Florida with open channels for Russian interlocutors and the involvement of European partners. Steve Witkoff described the process as “productive and constructive.” The Kremlin, for its part, maintained that the adjustments introduced by Europe and Ukraine to the US proposals do not improve the prospects for peace.

Implications.

Moscow intends to freeze its conquests and sell them as peace, and furthermore seeks to fracture Euro-Atlantic unity. The danger is not negotiation itself; it is negotiating hastily and under the illusion that mere dialogue can tame an imperial project. If the agreement is born without verifiable guarantees, sanctions and technological controls conditioned on compliance, and without a credible security architecture, it will not be peace: it will be an operational pause for the aggressor to regroup. And such a “peace,” besides being unjust, would set a systemic precedent: Beijing would take note of it in its Indo-Pacific report.

3. US intelligence: Putin’s war aims remain unchanged

Facts.

Assessments cited by Reuters indicate that Putin maintains maximum objectives in Ukraine and an ambition to reshape the European space through coercion. 

Implications.

The key is moral and strategic: if the objective remains unchanged, the concession doesn’t end there; it fuels the conflict. A toothless “ceasefire” can be a temporary rental of tranquility in exchange for territory and credibility. The sensible approach is firm realism: exploring diplomatic solutions, yes, but without rewarding aggression or validating territorial acquisitions by force. The border cannot be moved by tanks and drones, because if that principle collapses, it drags the international order down with it. 

4. Japan prepares for reactivation of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, the world’s largest nuclear power plant

Facts.

Reuters reports progress towards restarting Kashiwazaki-Kariwa (Niigata), operated by TEPCO, 15 years after Fukushima, with persistent social and political sensitivity. 

Implications.

Japan is implementing a strategic decision: energy sovereignty as a strategic multiplier. This reduces vulnerability to LNG shocks, strengthens industrial resilience, and signals preparedness in a more hostile Indo-Pacific environment. Europe should take note: the Green Deal cannot become a catechism that sacrifices competitiveness, security, and industrial base. A transition without realism leads to dependency; dependency leads to blackmail. 

5. Nigeria: The remaining 130 kidnapped students have been released.

Facts.

Nigeria confirmed the release of the 130 students who remained captive after a mass kidnapping. Reuters frames the incident within a structural pattern of kidnapping as a criminal industry.

Implications.

A tactical victory and a morale boost, but a strategic warning: when kidnapping is profitable, it becomes systemic. For Europe, West Africa is not a distant backdrop: it is a forward operating front of insecurity, forced migration, and radicalization. A serious response combines intelligence, training, financial control of criminal networks, and strengthening the rule of law, not just sympathy. 

6. North Korea rebukes the idea of ​​a nuclear Japan: cynicism and a warning sign

Facts.

Pyongyang condemned statements attributed to a Japanese official regarding the possibility of nuclear weapons in Japan, despite North Korea being a de facto nuclear power and violating international resolutions.

Implications.

North Korean cynicism reveals a dangerous shift: the nuclear taboo erodes when deterrence is perceived as uncertain and when autocracies blackmail with impunity. The smart way out is not proliferation, but rather strengthening extended deterrence, missile defense, and allied coordination, while maintaining sustained pressure on the North Korean program without resorting to cosmetic agreements. 

7. West Bank: 19 settlements; total illegality and politically inadmissible purpose

Facts.

Israel approved/legalized 19 settlements in the West Bank, driven by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, amid an accelerating colonization agenda. The Financial Times explicitly outlines the political framework: a strategy to thwart the viability of a Palestinian state. 

Implications.

We must be unequivocal here, without euphemisms or cowardice: the settlements in the West Bank are completely illegal under international law and are inadmissible under any circumstances. The UN Security Council has reaffirmed that they lack legal validity and constitute a flagrant violation; and the International Court of Justice, in its 2024 advisory opinion, reinforces the framework of illegality of the presence and associated practices in the occupied territory. 

And the statement—or political objective—attributed to the far-right minister, that the goal is to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state, is utter nonsense and unacceptable: immoral, inflammatory, and strategically suicidal. As defenders of Israel’s security, precisely for this reason, we must be clear: this path erodes the support of its democratic allies, fuels the extremist narrative, and makes it more difficult to build a regional framework to counter the main threat: Iran and its constellation of proxies, which exploit every political fracture to extend their influence and their terrorism. 

8. Gaza: The CPI indicates that famine is over, but the situation remains an emergency.

Facts.

Reuters reports that the IPC concludes that Gaza is no longer in a famine phase following improvements in aid access and trade, although it warns of fragility and emergency levels if access deteriorates. 

Implications.

Democracies must uphold the moral foundation: aid must be delivered, and civil protection matters, not out of weakness, but because it separates us from barbarism. But we must not lose sight of the central issue: Hamas exploits civilian suffering and transforms civilian infrastructure into an operational and propaganda tool. The obligation is twofold: to demand humanitarian rigor and, at the same time, to deny political legitimacy to terrorism and its sponsors. 

9. Lebanon: Statements on progress in Hezbollah’s disarmament

Facts.

Reports and statements persist regarding progress in disarmament/containment measures against Hezbollah in the south, in an environment of fragile ceasefire and recurring tensions. 

Implications.

If there were real and verifiable disarmament, it would be major strategic news; but without verification, declarations risk becoming a delaying tactic. Hezbollah is not a typical Lebanese actor: it is a military and political extension of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Europe must abandon symbolic diplomacy and apply conditionality: support in exchange for effective sovereignty of the Lebanese state. 

10. South China Sea: “grey zone” coercion and risk of strategic accident

Facts.

Incidents of Chinese pressure continue in disputed areas, with tactics of harassment and controlled friction. 

Implications.

The strategy is methodical: normalize intimidation and rewrite the maritime order without open warfare. For Europe, this is a matter of direct interest: supply chains, maritime insurance, semiconductors, and strategic raw materials. The response cannot be merely symbolic: it must include a strong presence, alliances, support for regional partners, and a technology policy that reduces dependence in critical sectors. 

III. MEDIA RACK

Below I have included the entire report rack that you sent me, and integrated it into our format:

• Washington-Venezuela axis: Reuters, CBS, ABC News, and other US media outlets highlight the pursuit of the third oil tanker and the intensified crackdown on the shadowy fleet linked to the Venezuelan narco-regime. European media outlets, such as The Guardian, place greater emphasis on the international legal debate surrounding maritime interdiction.
• Ukraine and Putin’s agenda: Reuters, AsiaOne and Asharq Al-Awsat agree that US intelligence sees Russian territorial ambitions as intact, while some European newspapers focus on the discreet Florida talks and intra-Western tensions over the peace process.
• Japanese nuclear energy: AsiaOne, the BBC and specialist analyses emphasize the historical dimension of the reopening of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, with emphasis on safety and public opinion, while economic media highlight the impact on energy costs and emissions.
• Sahel and the kidnapping of students: Reuters, The Straits Times and various European media outlets report on the release of the 130 Nigerian students, with coverage ranging from humanitarian chronicles to analyses of the fragility of the state in the face of armed gangs.
• West Bank and settlements: Le Monde, Al Jazeera, the BBC and US networks describe the recognition of 19 new settlements as a further step in an annexation strategy, while pro-government Israeli media present it as consolidating the “historical legacy”.
• Northeast Asia and nuclear proliferation: The Japan Times, Barron’s and the regional press highlight North Korea’s denunciation of alleged Japanese nuclear ambition, underlining the irony that it comes from a state that is already nuclearized and sanctioned.

IV. RISK TRAFFIC LIGHT

●	Risk	Assessment
🔴	Ukraine: unbalanced agreement	Intense contacts; Russian targets intact; risk of a freeze that rewards aggression.
🔴	Venezuela: maritime friction and asymmetric reprisals	Effective lockdown; possible indirect response from the regime.
🟠	West Bank: Illegal and Incendiary Drift	Illegal settlements and an explicit anti-Palestinian state agenda: political dynamite.
🟠	Gaza: humanitarian fragility and narrative war	Spot improvement; persistent emergency; risk of setback and escalation.
🟠	Indo-Pacific: Chinese coercion	Sustained gray zone; risk of strategic accident.
🟡	Nigeria/Sahel: structural kidnapping	Positive release; criminal structure intact.
🟡	Northeast Asia: Erosion of the Nuclear Taboo	North Korean rhetoric and growing regional debate.
🟢	Japan: Energy sovereignty	The right strategic decision, politically sensitive.

V. EDITORIAL COMMENTARY

There is an elegant way to lose: call it “pragmatism.” Ukraine doesn’t need a decorative ending; it needs a just and secure end. And Europe cannot allow its security to be traded off as if it were an afterthought. If Putin maintains his objectives, any territorial concessions “to close the chapter” will be the prelude to the next war.

In Venezuela, however, we see a success: selective pressure that cuts off the financial lifeline of a kleptocracy. Dictatorships don’t understand the language of “dialogue” as a virtue; they understand it as permission. Maritime interdiction, if maintained through coalition and legality, brings closer the day when the mafia-like organization occupying Miraflores begins to crumble from within.

And in the West Bank, the moral obligation is to speak out without fear: the settlements are illegal, period. And the attempt to prevent a Palestinian state on principle is not “politics”: it is arson. If we truly want Israel’s security and the defeat of terrorism, we cannot hand extremists the fuel of faits accomplis. Civilization is defended with deterrence, yes; but also with the rule of law. When the law is disregarded, states, democracy, and institutions are weakened, and the enemy is strengthened.