By Gustavo de Arístegui, as published in Negocios.

December 4, 2025

I. INTRODUCTION: THE FRACTURE OF ORDER AND THE RETURN OF HISTORY

As of December 4, 2025, the international system is not experiencing a mere transition; it is going through a systemic upheaval. The tectonic plates of geopolitics, which for decades seemed settled on the comfortable liberal consensus of the post–Cold War era, are now clashing with renewed force. What we are seeing are not isolated crises, but the accelerated reconfiguration of the global security architecture.

The massive fraud in Minnesota, now under investigation by the U.S. Treasury for possible ties to Somali terrorism, shows how institutional weakness and identity-based naivety can become weapons in the hands of our enemies. Vladimir Putin’s visit to India in the midst of the war in Ukraine openly challenges the narrative of Russian “isolation” and reveals the strength of the Eurasian energy–military axis.

Transnational organized crime, embodied in a paradigmatic way by the Tren de Aragua, ceases to be a public order problem and becomes a geopolitical actor. The United States has designated it simultaneously as a transnational criminal organization and a structure linked to terrorism, even sanctioning public figures like Venezuelan model and DJ Jimena “Rosita” Araya for material support to the network.

At the same time, Europe is entering its hour of truth. On one hand, the Commission has proposed using frozen Russian assets to finance a “reparations loan” for Ukraine, in the largest use of financial power in its history. On the other, the continent is shaken by the most serious scandal its foreign service has ever known: the arrest and formal accusation of Federica Mogherini, former High Representative of the EU, for alleged fraud, corruption, and conflict of interest in a program of the European Diplomatic Academy managed by the College of Europe.

Parallel to this, the Visegrad Group is breaking apart, with Poland seeing Russia as an existential threat and Hungary treating the Kremlin as a privileged partner. Gaza and the Red Sea remain epicenters of a low-intensity but high-risk hybrid war, with Iran pulling the strings through its militias and proxies from Hamas to the Houthis.

This report, following your structure and editorial line, analyzes the ten key dynamics of this day: not only the facts but also the underlying currents that are rewriting the global board.

II. THE 10 KEY NEWS ITEMS (FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS)

1. Brussels and the “Reparations Loan”: Europe Discovers Power Late

Facts

The European Commission is pushing a scheme to mobilize up to 210 billion euros in frozen Russian assets, whose extraordinary gains would be used as collateral for a large G7 loan — around 140 billion euros — aimed at financing Ukraine through 2027. Belgium, home to Euroclear, has expressed strong reservations, as has the ECB, due to legal precedent and the risk to the credibility of the euro as a reserve currency.

Implications

Europe is finally beginning to behave as a geopolitical actor, not just as a regulatory and moralizing power. Using the proceeds from Russian assets to support Ukraine is an elementary exercise in justice: the aggressor should contribute to paying for the war it unleashed.

But the operation is also a stress test for the European project:

• Legally, the line between using interest and touching the principal is extremely thin; any mistake could trigger years of litigation and undermine third parties’ (China, Gulf countries, large sovereign funds) confidence in parking reserves in the eurozone.
  
• Politically, Belgium’s and the ECB’s resistance, along with Hungary’s usual obstruction, shows that European unity is still fragile when it comes to taking innovative steps in sanction policy.
  
• Strategically, Brussels is trying with this move to secure a seat at the future Ukrainian negotiation table, in competition with Washington’s own peace plan.
  

From an Atlanticist and pro-Europe perspective, the message is clear: despite doubts, Europe is finally using its instruments of power; but if it falters now, it will confirm to Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran the image of a continent that threatens much but acts little.

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2. India–Russia: The New Delhi Summit and the Architecture of Mutual Dependence

Facts

Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi for the 23rd Annual India–Russia Summit, his most significant visit since the start of the Ukraine invasion. The relationship is officially defined as a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.” India maintains about two-thirds of its arsenal of Russian or Soviet origin and has multiplied its purchases of discounted Russian crude since 2022, creating a large trade surplus in Moscow’s favor.

Implications

The summit reveals an asymmetrical mutual dependence:

• For Russia, India is a strategic lifeline: it purchases oil, keeps the Russian military-industrial complex alive, and shows the world that the Kremlin is not isolated.
  
• For India, Russia remains an indispensable provider of key weapons systems in an environment where China is pushing in the Himalayas and Pakistan remains structurally unstable.
  

Narendra Modi’s maneuver is high-level: he receives Putin with state honors, reaffirms India’s strategic autonomy, but also consolidates ties with the U.S., Japan, and Australia in the Quad framework. India sends an unambiguous message to the West: it will not be anyone’s satellite.

From a Western perspective, the priorities are:

• Avoid pushing Russia further into China’s arms;
  
• Integrate India into a sufficiently flexible Indo-Pacific security architecture that tolerates its relationship with Moscow but is robust enough to contain Chinese expansion.
  

India’s lesson is brutal for certain European elites: in international politics there are no eternal friendships, only permanent interests. 

3. Visegrad Breaks: Poland and Hungary Are No Longer on the Same Side

Facts

The Visegrad Group (Poland, Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia) is on the verge of irrelevance. Polish President Karol Nawrocki’s cancellation of a meeting with Viktor Orbán after Orbán’s visit to Moscow symbolizes the break. Warsaw describes Orbán’s approach to Putin as a “moral and security red line.”

Implications

This is no longer a matter of nuances but of antagonistic strategies:

• For Poland, Russia is a historical enemy and an immediate existential threat.
  
• For Hungary, Russia is a privileged energy partner and a tool to gain leverage against Brussels.
  

The result is that the V4 is becoming an empty shell, useful only for photo-ops. Poland will increasingly turn to alliances with the Baltics, the Nordic countries, and strong Atlantic allies; Hungary is likely to become isolated, caught between its own ambiguities and its flirtations with Moscow.

For the EU, the lesson is clear: new security coalitions can no longer be based on inherited regional formulas, but on real convergence of strategic interests and the actual will to defend Ukraine and the European order against Russian aggression.

4. United States: Minnesota, Massive Fraud, and Possible Al-Shabab Pipeline

Facts

The U.S. Treasury, led by Scott Bessent, has announced an investigation into possible links between massive frauds in Minnesota social programs — including the “Feeding Our Future” case with more than $250 million diverted — and funding for the Somali jihadist group Al-Shabab through informal hawala money transfer systems. So far, evidence of concrete links is preliminary and the investigation is at an early stage, but the announcement has ignited fierce political battle in Washington and with Democratic Governor Tim Walz.

Implications

This case is paradigmatic of the “voluntary blindness” of some Western elites:

• a generous welfare system,
  
• lax or nonexistent controls,
  
• fear of auditing organizations for fear of accusations of racism,
  
• identity politics in any oversight attempt.
  

The combination is lethal. Minnesota has become a symbol of how good intentions and incompetence can unintentionally open channels that — according to some reports and officials — could have been exploited by terrorist organizations.

The Trump administration’s response is consistent with a total security doctrine: investigate every dollar, demand political accountability, and link the fight against fraud with the fight against terrorism. The risk is internal polarization; the benefit is twofold: restore respect for the law and send a clear message at home and abroad that social programs cannot become crime or jihadist cash machines.

5. Migration Suspension for 19 Countries: The Border as a Red Line

Facts

In parallel, the Trump administration has ordered the indefinite suspension of all immigration adjudications for citizens of 19 countries — mostly in Africa and the Middle East, plus Venezuela and other states with high levels of risk — following a shooting by an Afghan refugee and in the context of the Minnesota investigation.

Implications

Seen from a balanced perspective, the decision is extremely harsh, but it must be placed in context: years of uncontrolled borders, trafficking networks, systematic abuse of asylum procedures, and pressures on public services.

The White House message is unequivocal:

• There is no right to immigrate; there are immigration processes;
  
• The state has a duty to protect its citizens,
  
• and to safeguard legal immigrants who scrupulously obey the law.
  

The radical left will react with its usual mix of moral outrage and xenophobia accusations. But in the deeper cultural and political battle, Trumpism is framing immigration not as a taboo ideology but as a public policy subject to the logic of security, legality, and social cohesion.

6. The Tren de Aragua: From Venezuelan Prison Gang to Global Criminal and Terrorist Organization

Facts

The United States has stepped up its offensive against the Tren de Aragua (TdA), the criminal organization born in Venezuela and now expanded across much of Latin America, the United States, and Europe. The Trump administration has taken two decisive steps:

1. Formally designating the TdA as a transnational criminal organization and linking it under the authority of executive orders 13581 and 13224 to terrorist sanctions;
   
2. Sanctioning a network of individuals and entities associated with it, including Venezuelan model, actress, and DJ Jimena Romina Araya Navarro (“Rosita”), accused by the Treasury Department of providing material, financial, or technological support to the TdA, as well as shell companies like Global Import Solutions S.A. and venues used for laundering, according to the official OFAC notice.
   

Implications

The qualitative leap is enormous: the TdA is no longer seen simply as a Venezuelan prison gang but explicitly as a hybrid actor of organized crime and terrorism with continental implications.

The structure described by OFAC is revealing:

• use of media figures like “Rosita,” identified by the Treasury as part of a network linked to leader “Niño Guerrero” and key in support and laundering operations;
  
• shell companies in Colombia, Panama, and other countries;
  
• nightclubs and production houses used as laundering centers;
  
• mid-level TdA figures sanctioned one by one with precision.
  

From our editorial line, the conclusion is clear:

• the Maduro regime has created conditions for structures like the TdA to thrive and internationalize;
  
• the TdA is today an instrument of regional destabilization combining narcotrafficking, human trafficking, extreme violence, and social penetration;
  
• Washington’s decision to treat it with the same tools used against Mexican cartels and terrorist organizations is a necessary step, though not sufficient.
  

The battle against the TdA will be won — or lost — on the ground of international judicial cooperation, financial intelligence, and sustained political pressure on the Venezuelan regime and its accomplices.

7. Gaza and the Red Sea: “Reducefire” and Hybrid War

Facts

In Gaza, a militia attack injures five Israeli soldiers; Israel responds with selective bombings in the southern Strip. Despite language of “ceasefire,” the reality on the ground looks more like a reducefire: lower-intensity but constant violence, with a spiraling humanitarian crisis.

In the Red Sea, the Houthi militia — an Iranian-backed Yemeni group — frees the crew of the cargo ship Eternity C after months of captivity, thanks to Oman’s mediation, but keeps up its campaign of attacks on strategic shipping routes.

Implications

In Gaza, what matters now is not just exchanges of fire but the total absence of a political architecture for the “day after”:

• Israel cannot accept a return to the status quo with Hamas;
  
• the Palestinian Authority lacks legitimacy and capacity;
  
• moderate Arab countries do not want to “inherit” a powder keg without security guarantees;
  
• the West still has not articulated a credible international governance model.
  

Meanwhile, Iran exploits the situation to legitimize its “axis of resistance” and present itself as champion of the Palestinian cause, while fueling Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis.

In the Red Sea, the release of the Eternity C mariners is a calculated gesture to improve the Houthis’ image among certain regional actors. But the reality is that:

• they can still attack commercial vessels;
  
• they control the narrative of “resistance” against Israel and the West;
  
• they have shown they can raise global trade costs at will.
  

Iran has turned the Red Sea into a hybrid maritime warfare laboratory: a front where it can pressure the West without exposing itself directly.

8. Ukraine: Uncertain Peace on a Board Moving Between Geneva, Moscow, and New Delhi

Facts

Discreet talks continue between U.S. and Russian envoys on a possible 28-point peace plan for Ukraine. Meanwhile, the front remains tense, with a stabilized contact line but daily artillery exchanges and drone attacks.

The broader Eurasian adjustment — Putin’s visit to India, Russia’s growing dependence on China, and Europe’s uncertain commitment — weighs on negotiations.

Implications

Our stance is firm: we are radically opposed to any solution that legitimizes territorial acquisitions by force.

Trump seeks to present a peace agreement as a diplomatic win. Russia aims to consolidate its gains in the Donbas and Crimea. Europe wants to avoid being relegated to mere financier. Ukraine fights for its survival as a sovereign state.

The real danger is a bad peace that:

• consolidates facts on the ground,
  
• splits Europe between “pragmatists” and “principlists,”
  
• and sends the world a devastating message: that whoever has strength and nuclear arsenal can redraw borders with impunity.
  

If that precedent is set, Russia will not be the only one to try.

9. Mogherini: The Scandal That Blows Up the Credibility of European Diplomacy

Facts

The former EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, has been arrested and later charged, along with two senior officials, in a European Public Prosecutor’s Office investigation for alleged public contract fraud, corruption, conflict of interest, and violation of professional secrecy related to a contract from the European Diplomatic Academy awarded to the College of Europe, of which Mogherini is rector.

The investigation has involved searches at:

• the European External Action Service headquarters in Brussels,
  
• the College of Europe facilities in Bruges,
  
• and the private residences of the accused.
  

Implications

We are witnessing the worst institutional scandal in the history of European foreign policy.

This is not a minor conflict of interest case. The individual who was:

• the highest official in EU foreign and security policy,
  
• who played a central role in the Iran nuclear deal,
  
• and who now heads the institution responsible for training the European diplomatic elite,
  

is formally accused of manipulating a public procurement process funded with EU funds in favor of the very institution she leads.

Politically, the damage is threefold:

1. Internal trust is damaged: if the EEAS and the College of Europe can be venues for high-level corrupt practices, internal control mechanisms are undermined.
   
2. External credibility is harmed: with what moral authority can the EU demand reforms, transparency, and good governance from third countries if its former top diplomat is accused of manipulating European public contracts?
   
3. Strategic doctrine suffers: Mogherini symbolized the commitment to “soft multilateralism” and appeasement toward regimes like Iran; now, her involvement in a fraud case, even if unrelated to Tehran, reinforces the perception of a lost decade in European foreign policy where rhetoric replaced scrutiny and fascination with soft power eclipsed the need for real power and strict controls.
   

Those accused are entitled to the presumption of innocence; but the systemic gravity of the case demands an exemplary response: full transparency, complete cooperation with EPPO, and above all, a deep reform of control mechanisms in the EEAS and in the management of strategic training programs like the European Diplomatic Academy.

10. Hong Kong and Failed Governance: When Corruption Kills

Facts

The fire at the Wang Fuk Court residential complex, with 159 fatalities, has revealed a chain of corruption and negligence in Hong Kong: the use of illegal flammable materials, disabled alarms, and collusion between contractors and regulators.

Implications

Beyond the tragedy, the case illustrates the deterioration of a model once emblematic of efficiency and the rule of law. Since the imposition of the National Security Law by Beijing, Hong Kong has seen a constant erosion of its checks and balances, press freedom, and civil society’s oversight. When counterweights are removed and whistleblowers are intimidated, corruption flourishes — and corruption, sooner or later, kills.

III. MEDIA SUMMARY

• The New York Times and Washington Post focus on the Minnesota case, the political battle between Trump and Walz, and the debate over whether links to Al-Shabab are real or politically instrumentalized.
  
• The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times emphasize the legal risk of using Russian assets and the potential impact on markets.
  
• Fox News and conservative outlets highlight the offensive against the Tren de Aragua, “Rosita’s” role, and the “Total National Security” narrative about crime and terrorism.
  
• European media (Le Monde, Le Figaro, FAZ, Die Welt, Corriere, Euractiv, Euronews) lead with the Mogherini scandal, describing it as the latest blow to European institutions after other reputational cases.
  
• Asian press (Times of India, Hindustan Times, Yomiuri, SCMP) analyze Putin’s visit as recognition of India’s centrality in the new multipolar order, stressing U.S. pressure and the role of Russian oil and weapons.
  

Latin American outlets (El Nacional, Infobae, El Tiempo, Semana) widely cover sanctions on the Tren de Aragua and Jimena “Rosita” Araya, emphasizing the cartel’s international expansion.

IV. RISK LIGHTS

Area / Topic	Level	Comment
War in Ukraine and European order	High	Risk of a bad peace that legitimizes Russian gains and fractures Europe long-term.
Middle East (Gaza, Red Sea, Iran and proxies)	High	Contained but highly volatile escalation; Iran keeps initiative through Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis.
Transnational organized crime (Tren de Aragua)	High	Jump to hybrid crime/terrorist category with continental presence and sanctions.
Institutional corruption in the EU	High	The Mogherini case deeply erodes foreign policy credibility.
U.S. internal security (fraud + migration)	Medium-High	Massive fraud in Minnesota, investigations with potential terrorism links, migration tensions.
Indo-Pacific (India, China, Russia)	Medium	India reinforces strategic autonomy; Russia seeks to break isolation; China watches.
Global economy and financial stability	Medium	Legal risk of using Russian assets; logistical vulnerability in the Red Sea, but no immediate shock.
Global terrorist threat	Medium	Worrying signals in Africa and diasporas; open investigations for possible U.S. connections.

V. FINAL EDITORIAL NOTE

The events of December 4, 2025 paint an uncompromising portrait of Western weakness and, at the same time, its latent capacity to react. In the United States, seeing how child feeding programs allegedly end up financing — directly or indirectly — one of Africa’s most dangerous jihadist groups is not just an administrative scandal; it is a failure of intelligence and strategic conception. It shows that our enemies do not distinguish between borders or silos: they will use our mismanaged generosity and legal laxity as weapons against us.

The Trump administration’s response — toughening immigration, thoroughly investigating fraud, and declaring financial war on the Tren de Aragua — may unsettle progressive sensibilities, but it follows a logic of democratic state survival.

In Europe, the picture is even more bleak. The Visegrad split certifies the collapse of a bloc that could have been a security pillar in the eastern flank and has instead become a theater of contradictions. Meanwhile, Putin’s reception with honors in New Delhi shows that the narrative of Russian “isolation” was from the start a Eurocentric illusion.