By Gustavo de Arístegui, as published by Negocios.
September 01, 2025.
Below is an analysis of current global affairs, structured around key themes to provide a clear and direct understanding, followed by a summary of coverage in major media outlets.
Key Themes in Depth
The Eurasian Axis Consolidates at the SCO Summit
Main Event:
In Tianjin, China, Xi Jinping presided over the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), hosting more than 20 leaders, including Vladimir Putin of Russia and Narendra Modi of India. The objective is to strengthen this bloc as a counterweight to NATO.
Context and Actors:
Modi’s presence sends a direct message to the Trump administration regarding India’s strategic autonomy in a multipolar world. The participation of observer countries such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia suggests a possible expansion of the alliance.
Analysis and Implications:
The summit accelerates the reconfiguration toward a multipolar order, consolidating a Beijing–Moscow bloc with overtures to New Delhi. The emphasis on “shared responsibility” and economic cooperation directly challenges U.S. influence in Asia and complicates NATO strategies both in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific.
Gaza and Palestine: Diplomatic Shift and Rising Tension
Main Event:
France will lead the recognition of the Palestinian state at the United Nations in September, in a coordinated move with key allies such as the United Kingdom, Canada, Spain, Ireland, and Norway.
Context and Actors:
The response from Washington and Israel has been forceful, including the denial of visas to Mahmoud Abbas and 80 Palestinian leaders. In parallel, the “Global Sumud Flotilla,” a humanitarian initiative involving activists such as Greta Thunberg, has departed from Barcelona in an attempt to break the Gaza blockade. Israel has responded by intensifying its military operations against the terrorist group Hamas, which uses the civilian population as human shields.
Analysis and Implications:
This European diplomatic move raises the political and reputational cost for Israel, creating a fracture within the transatlantic alliance. Over the long term, legal pressure on Israel intensifies in international forums, while still acknowledging the destabilising role of Hamas and its sponsors, such as Iran.
Ukraine: War of Attrition and Pressure to Negotiate
Main Event:
Russia has intensified its bombing campaign on Kyiv, while Ukraine has responded with drone attacks against Russian refineries. The White House has imposed deadlines for a Putin–Zelensky summit, combining sanctions with security guarantees.
Context and Actors:
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz anticipates a prolonged conflict, stating that “wars often end in negotiations after a long time.” Meanwhile, Hungary continues to block progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks, exacerbating internal divisions within the bloc.
Analysis and Implications:
The conflict has entered a phase of attrition. Merz’s warning reflects the reality on the ground, while U.S. pressure for rapid negotiations clashes with the Kremlin’s strategy. There is a real risk of escalation in the autumn if diplomatic efforts fail.
Global Trade: Uncertainty over Trump’s Tariffs
Main Event:
A U.S. federal appeals court has ruled that most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are illegal, although they remain temporarily in force pending a Supreme Court decision.
Context and Actors:
India is among the most affected countries, facing tariffs of up to 50 percent on two-thirds of its key exports, including textiles and jewellery. Its trade minister has stated, “we will not bow to the United States.”
Analysis and Implications:
The judicial ruling creates enormous uncertainty. If upheld, it would trigger a global tariff recalibration. If overturned, it could unleash a new wave of protectionism affecting not only rivals but also key allies such as the European Union and Japan, further straining supply chains.
Energy: Tactical Stability with Geopolitical Vulnerability
Main Event:
Brent crude prices remain stable at around 68 dollars per barrel, with forecasts of a surplus and a possible decline toward 58–60 dollars in 2025–2026 due to increased production from non-OPEC+ countries.
Context and Actors:
OPEC+ is closely monitoring the market to prevent oversupply that could collapse prices.
Analysis and Implications:
This stability provides relief from inflationary pressures and gives central banks room to manoeuvre. However, the trend is fragile and could quickly reverse due to any military escalation in Ukraine or new geopolitical tensions.
Indo-Pacific: Rising Tension over Taiwan
Main Event:
U.S. Senator Roger Wicker has visited Taipei to discuss joint arms production, including drones, between the United States and Taiwan.
Context and Actors:
Beijing has reacted strongly with naval exercises in the area. The Philippines has activated contingency plans in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and new incidents involving China have been reported in the South China Sea.
Analysis and Implications:
Washington’s move alarms Beijing and raises the risk of regional escalation. Direct military collaboration between the United States and Taiwan is a red line for China.
Venezuela: Isolation and Pressure on the “Narco-Dictatorship”
Main Event:
The United States and the European Union have tightened sanctions against Nicolás Maduro’s regime following fraudulent elections, including designations targeting the “Tren de Aragua” cartel and senior officials.
Context and Actors:
Domestic opposition continues to apply pressure, while the humanitarian crisis worsens.
Analysis and Implications:
Maduro is entrenching himself amid Western isolation, while sanctions aim to force either an opening or the collapse of the regime. There is a possibility that the SCO bloc, through China and Russia, may attempt to counterbalance the blockade.
Summary of International Media Coverage
Reuters / AP:
Focus on the prolonged war in Ukraine (Merz), the recognition of Palestine (France), and the Gaza flotilla (Thunberg).
WSJ / Financial Times:
Analysis of the diplomatic clash between Paris and Washington over Palestine, Pentagon doubts about missile use in Ukraine, and Brent oil stability.
European Media (The Guardian, The Times, Le Monde, FAZ):
Extensive coverage of Putin’s visit to China, criticism of Israel over Gaza, and the debate on German rearmament.
U.S. Media (CNN, CBS, FOX News):
The court ruling against tariffs and the White House response dominate economic coverage.
Asian Media (SCMP, Japan Times, Times of India):
Focus on the SCO summit as a message of “stability,” Wicker’s visit to Taiwan, and the impact of tariffs on India.
Al Jazeera / Arab Media:
Emphasis on the humanitarian flotilla, recognition of Palestine, and criticism of Israel.
Russian and Chinese Media (TASS, RT, China Daily):
Official narratives portraying the SCO summit as a diplomatic success for peace and stability.
Ukrainian Media (Kyiv Independent):
Reports on bombing casualties, attacks on Russian refineries, and Hungary’s blockade within the EU.