By Gustavo de Arístegui,
February 10, 2026
I. BRIEF INTRODUCTION
The day confirms that the offensive by democracies against narco-regimes and maritime organized crime is moving without hesitation into the energy, financial and military spheres, while Havana and Caracas starkly display their structural fragility.
The de facto embargo on oil from Cuba and Venezuela, the cancellation of Air Canada flights to the island, and the attack on a drug-running boat in the Pacific show that Washington’s hardline policy, far from being rhetorical, has tangible consequences on the economic lifeline of dictatorships and drug trafficking networks.
II. MOST IMPORTANT NEWS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS
1. Intensification of Russian drone attacks on Ukraine
Facts
– Russia has launched new waves of drones against regions in eastern Ukraine, especially Kharkiv and Chernihiv, with civilian casualties and power outages affecting tens of thousands of people.
– Military reports indicate that Moscow is maintaining a war of attrition by combining precision attacks against energy infrastructure with ground pressure in several sectors of the front.
Implications
– The Russian objective remains twofold: to break Ukrainian civil resilience and to force territorial concessions under the blackmail of cold, darkness and economic exhaustion, in flagrant violation of international law.
– For kyiv, the combination of energy destruction and military pressure increases dependence on Western aid in air defense and reconstruction, while European public opinion shows signs of fatigue.
Perspectives and scenarios
– Central scenario: prolongation of the war of attrition, with new peaks of attacks against critical infrastructure before the end of winter and a Ukraine forced to prioritize the defense of its cities over any ambitious counter-offensive.
– Risk scenario: if Western support fragments, Russia will intensify its push for a dictated peace, demanding demilitarization and political control of Ukraine, which would be a devastating precedent for European and global security.
2. US diplomatic offensive in the Caucasus: JD Vance’s trip and the civilian nuclear agreement with Armenia
Facts
– Vice President JD Vance is traveling to Armenia and Azerbaijan with the stated goal of promoting a peace agreement that will reconfigure energy and trade corridors in the South Caucasus.
Washington and Yerevan have signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement that deepens the strategic relationship between the US and Armenia and reduces Armenia’s dependence on Russian energy suppliers.
Implications
– The White House is reinforcing its presence in a space where Russia has traditionally acted as an arbiter, sending Moscow a clear message: the vacuum of influence left by its imperialist adventure in Ukraine will be filled by the Atlantic alliance.
– For Europe, the opening of new energy and trade routes in the Caucasus fits with the need to diversify supplies and reduce vulnerability to Russian gas blackmail.
Perspectives and scenarios
– Positive scenario: consolidation of an Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement under a Western umbrella, with safe corridors connecting the Caspian to the Mediterranean and reinforcing the EU’s strategic autonomy without breaking the transatlantic link.
– Friction scenario: Russia, weakened but not defeated, could use ethnic minorities, mercenaries and disinformation campaigns to torpedo any arrangement that reduces its room for maneuver in the Caucasus.
3. Intensification of repression by the Iranian regime: new arrests of opposition members
Facts
Iranian authorities have detained more prominent reformist opposition figures, continuing a wave of mass arrests aimed at preventing another wave of protests against the theocratic regime.
The arrests come after months of internal tension, international sanctions, and debates in the West about how to respond to Tehran’s double game: internal repression and destabilizing expansion through militias and regional proxies.
Implications
– The Tehran regime is sending an unequivocal message: any expectation of political opening is illusory as long as the security apparatus and the Revolutionary Guards continue to control the levers of power and finance terrorist networks in Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, Iraq and beyond.
– For Europe and the US, maintaining nuclear or economic agreements with a regime that intensifies repression and continues its export of terrorism poses a moral and strategic dilemma that can no longer be disguised with diplomatic rhetoric.
Perspectives and scenarios
– Likely scenario: continuation of the repression, with active support for Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis and pro-Iranian militias, while Tehran exploits the fissures within the West and coordinates punctually with Moscow and Beijing.
– Escalation scenario: a miscalculation in the Gulf, in Israel or in the Red Sea could transform the shadow war into a first-order open confrontation.
4. Political crisis in the United Kingdom following the Epstein scandal and the resignation of Starmer’s head of communications
Facts
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a growing political crisis following new revelations linked to the Epstein case, which have led to the resignation of his communications chief, the second senior official to leave in 24 hours.
– In parallel, European security analyses describe an era of “wreckball politics”, in which the figure of President Trump appears as a catalyst for the strategic debate on the continent’s security.
Implications
London, called upon to lead alongside Washington in the defense of the liberal order, finds itself caught up in a scandal that erodes the moral authority of the Labour government amidst the redefinition of the UK’s role after Brexit.
– The partisan exploitation of the Epstein case by sectors of the left and right weakens the serious debate on security, intelligence and alliances, at a time when Russia and China are exploiting the internal cracks of democracies.
Perspectives and scenarios
– Baseline scenario: Starmer resists, but with weakened leadership within NATO and the wider Europe, reducing Britain’s ability to set the agenda in Ukraine, the Indo-Pacific and in relations with Washington.
– Deterioration scenario: if the situation worsens, it could lead to a recomposition of the British political center, opening up space for left-wing and right-wing populisms that challenge traditional Atlantic foreign policy.
5. Energy crisis in Cuba: oil embargo, Air Canada cancels all flights and Mexico aligns itself with Havana
Facts
Air Canada has suspended all its flights to Cuba due to a lack of aviation fuel on the island, after Cuban authorities warned that they would not be able to supply kerosene to international airlines.
The company is sending empty planes from Canada to repatriate thousands of tourists, which demonstrates the collapse of the regime’s ability to guarantee a minimum of normality to the tourism sector.
– The crisis is framed within the tightening of the oil embargo promoted by the Trump administration, which has pressured crude suppliers to cut off the flow to the Castro regime.
– Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has accused the United States of trying to “strangle” Cuba and has promised “diplomatic actions” in favor of Havana.
Implications
The decline in Cuba’s ability to fuel its own civil aviation is not an “unjust suffering of the people,” but the logical consequence of decades of economic incompetence, corruption, and dependence on subsidized oil from other narco-dictators.
The oil embargo is not a whim, but a legitimate instrument to strike at the economic heart of a regime that has lived off the political credit of the international left and dirty money from Caracas, Managua and drug trafficking networks; the fact that Air Canada has to evacuate tourists today is visible proof that the Castro regime’s machinery is seizing up.
Sheinbaum’s reaction, aligning herself with Havana and portraying US pressure as an attempt to “strangle” the island, places her closer to the Bolivarian axis than to responsible social democracy, anticipating friction with Washington on security, energy, and migration.
Perspectives and scenarios
– Likely scenario: worsening of the internal Cuban crisis, with more blackouts, shortages and new waves of discontent that the regime will stifle, as always, with repression and propaganda.
– Opportunity scenario: if pressure is maintained on the sources of financing and energy of Castroism – and we are in favor of it – the combination of international isolation and internal attrition can accelerate the agony of a dictatorship that has been shielded for too long by the revolutionary myth.
6. New attack against a drug-running boat in the Pacific and capture of a Venezuelan oil tanker in the Indian Ocean
Facts
– US forces have carried out a new attack against a vessel suspected of carrying drugs in the Pacific, resulting in two deaths and one survivor, as part of the campaign against maritime drug trafficking.
– At least 121 people have died in these types of operations against drug-running boats, directed against trafficking networks that operate on international routes and provide financial support to criminal and, in some cases, terrorist organizations.
– Meanwhile, US troops have boarded and captured in the Indian Ocean an oil tanker linked to Venezuela, accused of violating the “quarantine” imposed on Venezuelan crude exports.
Implications
– The campaign against narco-boats is not a gratuitous display of force, but a necessary instrument to strike at the logistical core of transnational drug trafficking, which finances cartels, terrorist groups and hybrid regimes like Chavismo; there is no room for moral equidistance in the face of those who live off the poison that destroys neighborhoods and States.
The capture of the Venezuelan oil tanker shows that the “quarantine” on Chavista crude is not merely declarative: Washington is willing to project power long-distance to prevent oil from becoming a lifeline for the narco-dictatorial regime in Caracas, something consistent with a foreign policy that does not reward those who use the State as a criminal machine.
– For Europe and Spain, the message is clear: supporting the United States’ firm action against drug-running boats and sanctioned vessels is also protecting our societies and institutions from the corrosive effect of drug trafficking and its political allies.
Perspectives and scenarios
– Central scenario: continuation of the US maritime offensive against drug-running boats and sanctioned vessels, with more lethal operations and captures, forcing criminal networks to seek more complex and costly routes.
– Scenario of tension: an increase in anti-American rhetoric is expected from governments and movements aligned with Chavismo and Castroism, who will speak of “piracy” and “economic warfare”, but with a limited real capacity for response as long as they depend on smuggling and the support of powers such as Russia or Iran.
7. Debate in Japan on nuclear submarines and strategic reconfiguration of the Indo-Pacific
Facts
– The debate over Japan’s possible acquisition or development of nuclear-powered submarines has intensified in response to increased threats in the Pacific and Chinese military pressure in the region.
– Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s electoral victory and her parliamentary majority strengthen Tokyo’s ability to pass defense reforms that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
Implications
– The Japanese shift, prudent but determined, strains relations with Beijing, which sees how a central pillar of the post-war order – Japanese pacifism – is transformed into a robust defense stance backed by Washington.
– For Europe and Spain, the consolidation of a United States-Japan-Australia-India axis in the Indo-Pacific serves as a reminder that defending freedom of navigation and containing Chinese expansionism is a global issue.
Perspectives and scenarios
– Likely scenario: gradual increase of Japanese military capabilities in coordination with the US and its allies, without crossing the nuclear threshold for the time being, but sending a firm message to China.
– Risk scenario: If Beijing perceives Japanese strengthening as an attempt at “encirclement,” it could accelerate the militarization of the South China Sea and increase pressure on Taiwan.
8. Tension between the Trump administration and the multilateral system: debt to the UN and trade threats to Canada
Facts
The United Nations is awaiting clarification on how much Washington is willing to pay of the billions of dollars it owes, a figure that threatens the functioning of essential programs.
– In parallel, President Trump has threatened to block the opening of a new Michigan-Canada bridge, demanding “fairness and respect” from Ottawa on trade and regulatory matters.
Implications
– Washington’s pressure on the UN and close allies is part of a transactional strategy: the liberal order is supported when it serves the national interest, but resources are withheld if it is perceived as hostile or inefficient.
The challenge for Atlanticists is how to maintain a functional multilateral system without feeding the anti-American narrative that Russia, China, and Iran exploit to present themselves as a “sovereignist” alternative.
Perspectives and scenarios
– Baseline scenario: controlled tensions, with specific agreements that allow the UN to continue operating while the US uses its financial contribution as political leverage.
– Adverse scenario: a prolonged blockade and a drastic reduction in US contributions would lead to a weaker UN, more susceptible to the influence of authoritarian powers.
9. Progress of the debate on nuclear weapons and the arms race
Facts
– Discussions in Washington about a possible increase in the nuclear arsenal and the resumption of underground testing are gaining momentum after the expiration of the last major treaty inherited from the Cold War.
Moscow, for its part, periodically warns of “reciprocal measures” and uses the nuclear threat as a tool of psychological and diplomatic pressure.
Implications
– The risk is political and strategic: a new arms race would erode decades of work on non-proliferation and give arguments to regimes like Iran or North Korea to accelerate their programs.
– For the European Union, which lacks its own nuclear umbrella apart from France, the debate reinforces the need to coordinate closely with Washington without falling into automatic responses or naive pacifism.
Perspectives and scenarios
– Possible scenario: use of the threat of testing as a negotiating lever for a new arms control framework that includes China, if Beijing abandons its current comfortable ambiguity.
– Breakdown scenario: resumption of testing by some power, with a domino effect on India, Pakistan and North Korea and a substantial increase in global risk.
10. Strategic adjustments in US trade and technology policy regarding AI and China
Facts
– In the internal US debate, the struggle over the regulation of artificial intelligence intersects with concerns about competitiveness against China, especially in the defense, data and semiconductor sectors.
– Large technology companies are becoming financially involved in congressional campaigns where regulatory limits, access to data and cooperation with the defense sector are discussed, in a context of systemic rivalry with Beijing.
Implications
– AI ceases to be a strictly economic matter and becomes a central vector of geopolitical power, with repercussions in cybersecurity, military capacity and cultural hegemony.
– For Europe, the dilemma is how to regulate AI while defending rights and freedoms without becoming irrelevant compared to the American and Chinese giants, both in innovation and standards.
Perspectives and scenarios
– Constructive scenario: Atlantic convergence in standards and technological cooperation that allows counteracting the Chinese authoritarian digital control model.
– Fragmentation scenario: deep regulatory divergences between the US and the EU that weaken the capacity for a joint response to Beijing’s technological challenge.
III. MEDIA RACK
– Anglo-Saxon liberal-progressive axis (NYT, Washington Post, The Guardian, BBC, CNN, The Daily Beast, Newsweek):
– They underline the risks of Trump’s “wrecking ball” policy to the international system, the dangers of the nuclear arms race and the humanitarian cost of the war in Ukraine, with a focus on human rights in Iran and other scenarios.
– Liberal-economic and financial axis (Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, CNBC, international agencies):
– They analyze the movements in the Caucasus and European energy diversification, the impact of the US-China rivalry on supply chains and AI regulation, and observe with concern the pressure on multilateralism.
– Conservative-Atlantic American and British axis (Fox News, The Telegraph, The Times, The Hill, Washington Times, The National Interest, USA Today):
– They criticize the lack of Democratic firmness towards Russia, Iran and China; they positively value Trump’s tough stance against drug trafficking and the Wok movement, although they express reservations about his clashes with allies like Canada and his confrontations with the UN.
– Continental European press (Le Monde, Le Figaro, FAZ, Die Welt, Die Zeit, Corriere, La Tribune de Genève, Helsingin Sanomat, DPA):
– They emphasize European vulnerability to the war in Ukraine, the need for strategic autonomy without breaking with the US, and the challenge posed by the Arctic, the Caucasus, and the Mediterranean.
– Media from the post-Soviet space and Ukraine (Ukrainska Pravda, Ukrinform, Kyiv Post, The Kyiv Independent, RBC-Ukraine):
– They detail the Russian offensive, the effects of drone attacks, Ukrainian resistance and the difficulties of sustaining the war effort in the long term, underlining the need for Western weaponry.
– Middle Eastern media (Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya, Israeli and Arab press):
– They highlight the repression in Iran, the situation in Gaza and Lebanon, the Houthi movements and the internal tensions in several Arab countries, with divergent interpretations of the role of the US and Israel.
– Asian media (South China Morning Post, China Daily, The Times of India, Hindustan Times, Yomiuri, The Straits Times):
– They observe the growing militarization of the Indo-Pacific, the Japanese nuclear debate, Trump’s policy in Asia and technological competition, with a focus on the regional economic impact.
IV. RISK TRAFFIC LIGHT
– 🔴 Red (high and immediate risk)
– Continuity of the Russian offensive on Ukraine with systematic attacks on energy and civilian infrastructure, and possible selective territorial advance.
– Accelerated destabilization of Cuba due to the combination of oil embargo, collapse of aviation fuel and cancellation of international flights (including those of Air Canada), with risk of social unrest and new waves of migration to the United States.
– Violent reaction from drug trafficking networks to the intensification of attacks against drug-running boats and the interdiction of oil tankers linked to sanctioned regimes such as Venezuela.
– Possible nuclear or military miscalculation in tense scenarios (Ukraine, Persian Gulf, South China Sea) in a context of declining arms control frameworks.
– 🟠 Amber (medium risk, increasing)
– Erosion of multilateralism (UN) due to financial and political tensions with the United States, which may open the door to the influence of illiberal powers.
– Internal radicalization in Western democracies due to the culture war (wokism, identity, migration), weakening the consensus on foreign policy.
– Increased diplomatic confrontation between the United States and governments in the region (such as Mexico) that attempt to politicize the fight against drug trafficking and the oil embargo by presenting them as “imperialist aggression”.
– Military readjustment in the Indo-Pacific, with increased Japanese capabilities and a Chinese response, without clear rules for de-escalation.
– 🟢 Green (strategic opportunity)
– Greater Atlantic involvement in the Caucasus, with the potential to stabilize Armenia-Azerbaijan and open new energy corridors to Europe.
– Possibility of an updated nuclear arms control agreement if the United States and its allies manage to involve China in a trilateral framework.
– Reaffirmation of democratic alliances (NATO, links with Japan, India and Indo-Pacific partners) as a coordinated response to Chinese expansionism and Russian aggression.
V. EDITORIAL COMMENTARY
The double scene of these hours – Air Canada cancelling all its flights to Cuba due to a lack of fuel, and a new attack by US forces against a narco-boat in the Pacific while a tanker linked to Venezuela is captured in the Indian Ocean – summarizes the clash between two models: that of democracies which, however imperfect they may be, try to defend the rule of law and the security of their citizens, and that of narco-regimes and their complicit environments that have turned the State into a criminal enterprise.
The energy strangulation imposed by Castroism is not a “collective punishment,” it is the logical outcome of an intervened economy, dependent on subsidized oil from Venezuela and an elite that for decades has whitewashed its dictatorship with the romantic narrative of the revolution; maintaining pressure on the oil that feeds that system is not only legitimate, it is necessary if we want Cubans to one day live in freedom.
Similarly, attacks against drug-running boats and the capture of vessels that violate sanctions should not create any sense of unease in anyone who believes in representative democracy and the market economy: drug trafficking and the mafia’s use of oil are weapons of slow destruction against our societies, and looking the other way, in the name of a misunderstood pacifism, is to hand over the ground to organized crime and its political godfathers in Caracas, Havana and other enclaves.
The line between legitimate firmness and abuse exists and must be monitored, but it is not drawn by disarming the State, but by demanding parliamentary control, accountability and strict respect for international law in operations.
In this context, the commitment must remain clear: support for the energy embargo against narco-dictatorial regimes, backing the fight against drug-running boats, and an uncompromising defense of an Atlanticist, pro-European foreign policy focused on common sense, which understands that the rights and freedoms of citizens begin by protecting them from those who finance themselves by poisoning their streets and destabilizing their institutions.
Faced with those who dream of tearing down the liberal edifice without having anything better to offer than authoritarianism, identitarianism or populism, the response must be firm: more Europe, more Atlantic, more rule of law, more responsibility and more courage to call things by their name, from Moscow to Caracas, from Tehran to Beijing, however imperfect our democracies may be.