By Gustavo de Arístegui,
February 24, 2026
I. INTRODUCTION
Today marks exactly four years since Russia launched its full-scale aggression against Ukraine, a war that has transformed the European and global security order in ways not seen since the end of the Cold War. This anniversary comes at a moment of extraordinary geopolitical tension: President Trump’s new tariffs take effect this morning after the Supreme Court’s setback; Iran finalizes a missile deal with China amid the US nuclear ultimatum; Mexico is reeling from the death of the country’s most wanted drug trafficker; and Hungary torpedoes European solidarity with Ukraine at the worst possible time. All of this unfolds as President Trump prepares to deliver his first State of the Union address of his second term tonight, against a backdrop of a partial government shutdown now in its second week and with the midterm elections just eight months away.
II. MOST IMPORTANT NEWS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS
1. Four years of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine: exhaustion as a strategy and as a trap
Facts
Today marks the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The figures are devastating: according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), combined military casualties could reach 1.8 million, including up to 325,000 Russian soldiers killed and up to 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, although President Zelensky puts the number of Ukrainian deaths at 55,000. Mediazona, in collaboration with the BBC, has documented 200,000 Russian soldiers killed by name, a milestone reached today. The UN has verified 55,550 civilian casualties, including 15,378 deaths. On Sunday, Russia launched a massive attack with 297 drones and 50 missiles against the Ukrainian power grid, in the middle of winter with temperatures as low as -20°C. More than a dozen senior European officials have traveled to Kiev in a show of support, but they arrive without the two commitments they intended to present: neither the twentieth package of sanctions against Russia nor the 90 billion euro loan could be approved due to the Hungarian veto.
Implications
The Russian war of aggression has become the deadliest conflict on European soil since World War II. As I pointed out in my article in La Razón on Sunday, attrition serves both as a strategy and a trap: Moscow is betting on wearing down Ukraine and Western political will, but at the same time, the Kremlin is suffering demographic, economic, and military attrition of historic proportions. Western sources indicate that in the last three months, Russia has lost more troops than it has recruited—a potential turning point. However, the internal fracture within the EU, personified by the shameful Hungarian veto, weakens the European negotiating position and sends a pernicious message to both Moscow and Kyiv.
Perspectives and scenarios
The Geneva talks have yielded no substantive progress. The next round of negotiations is expected in March. Zelensky has indicated that Russia is responsible for the lack of results. The most likely scenario in the short term is the continuation of the war of attrition, with Russia making marginal territorial gains (only 0.79% of Ukrainian territory in the last year, according to the Institute for the Study of War), while pressure on Ukrainian energy infrastructure intensifies. Europe’s ability to maintain its financial and military support will be the decisive factor. If Hungary does not lift its veto on the $90 billion loan, Ukraine could face a serious budget crisis in April, which would also jeopardize an $8.2 billion IMF program.
2. Iran closes deal with China for supersonic anti-ship missiles amid nuclear ultimatum
Facts
Reuters exclusively reveals that Iran is close to finalizing a deal with China to acquire CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, manufactured by the Chinese state-owned company CASIC (China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation). These missiles have a range of approximately 290 kilometers and are designed to evade naval defenses by flying at low altitude and high speed. Negotiations, which began at least two years ago, accelerated dramatically after the twelve-day war between Israel and Iran last June. Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Massoud Oraei traveled to China during the final stages of the talks. The agreement would constitute the most advanced transfer of Chinese weaponry to Iran and would violate the UN arms embargo, reimposed last September. Iran is also negotiating the acquisition of Chinese air defense systems, MANPADS, anti-ballistic missiles, and anti-satellite weapons.
Implications
This agreement confirms what we have been pointing out for some time: the Tehran regime has no intention whatsoever of negotiating in good faith. While holding talks with the United States about its nuclear program, it is rearming itself with Chinese technology that directly threatens US naval forces deployed in the region. The CM-302 missiles represent, in the words of Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence officer, a paradigm shift in Iran’s capacity to attack ships in the area. This demonstrates that the three conditions demanded of Iran remain unmet: renouncing uranium enrichment above 5-6%, abandoning its medium- and long-range ballistic and hypersonic missile program, and ceasing support for its terrorist proxies. The Beijing-Tehran-Moscow axis is consolidating itself as the main strategic challenge for the free world.
Perspectives and scenarios
Trump gave Iran a deadline of 10 to 15 days on February 20 to reach an agreement or face military consequences. The next round of proxy talks is scheduled for Thursday in Geneva. The United States has deployed two aircraft carriers, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford, with their carrier strike groups in the vicinity of Iran. Tonight’s State of the Union address could include significant announcements regarding Iran. If the negotiations fail, a scenario of limited or extensive military action cannot be ruled out. China, for its part, is once again demonstrating its willingness to defy the international order when it suits its interests, deepening its alliance with the terrorist regime in Tehran.
3. New 10% tariffs come into effect after Supreme Court setback
Facts
The new 10% global tariffs imposed by President Trump under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 went into effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time this morning. This measure follows Friday’s landmark Supreme Court ruling, which declared illegal, by a 6-3 vote, the emergency tariffs Trump had imposed under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act). Trump initially announced 10% tariffs, but the following day raised the threat to 15%. However, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has been applying the 10% rate. A White House spokesperson told the Financial Times that the increase to 15% will be implemented later. Section 122 allows for temporary tariffs for up to 150 days without congressional approval.
Implications
The US trade situation is marked by considerable uncertainty. Although these 10 percent tariffs are significantly lower than those in place under the IEEPA for many countries, they create an environment of legal uncertainty that hinders investment decisions and global supply chains. For China, the effective rate drops from 45 percent to 35 percent. The European Union, which had agreed to a 15 percent tariff in its trade agreement with the United States, has suspended ratification of that agreement pending clarification. Japan has requested that the new terms not be worse than those previously agreed upon. The Tax Foundation estimates that these tariffs represent the largest tax increase in the United States as a percentage of GDP since 1993, with an average household cost of $1,500 in 2026.
Perspectives and scenarios
The tariff landscape will remain volatile. The 150-day maximum duration of Section 122 expires on July 24, after which any extension would require congressional approval—a politically unlikely outcome given Democratic opposition. The Trump administration will seek to invoke other legal authorities, such as Sections 232 and 301, to maintain the tariffs, but these mechanisms require investigations and periods of public comment. Plaintiffs who obtained the invalidation of the IEEPA tariffs will likely also challenge the new tariffs. The issue of refunds for tariffs already collected, estimated at more than $100 billion, adds a dimension of enormous complexity. If anything is clear in the position Reagan would have championed, it is that free trade is the engine of prosperity; tariff restrictions, even when they have legitimate reciprocal objectives, create distortions that we all ultimately pay for.
4. Death of El Mencho and chaos in Mexico: failed state or failed government
Facts
The Mexican army killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, alias El Mencho, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), on Sunday in a military operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco, with support from U.S. intelligence. He was the most powerful drug trafficker remaining at large in Mexico, with a $15 million reward offered by the State Department for his capture. His death triggered a wave of violence in at least half a dozen states: road blockades, burning of vehicles, buses, and gas stations, attacks on airports, and shootouts that paralyzed cities like Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta. Twenty-five members of the National Guard and eight members of the CJNG died in the clashes. The CJNG, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the Trump administration, is now resorting to fake news to sow panic among the population, according to Reuters.
Implications
The death of El Mencho represents an undeniable tactical success for Mexican security forces, but the violent reaction of the CJNG demonstrates the extraordinary operational capacity of these narco-terrorist organizations and the fragility of state control in large areas of Mexican territory. More than a failed state in the strict sense, what we are witnessing is a Sheinbaum administration that has failed to articulate a coherent strategy against organized crime. The succession within the CJNG is uncertain: with his son Rubén Oseguera González imprisoned in the United States, the line of succession is broken, which could trigger internal struggles and a fragmentation of the cartel with even more violent consequences. The proximity of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with matches scheduled in Guadalajara in June, adds a dimension of urgency that is not lost on anyone.
Perspectives and scenarios
The experience of capturing El Chapo and El Mayo Zambada shows that the strategy of decapitating cartel leadership, on its own, does not solve the problem but frequently exacerbates it in the short term. President Trump, who has been particularly harsh in his rhetoric against Mexican cartels, could use this situation to intensify pressure on Mexico. A hardline policy against drug trafficking and terrorism is necessary and legitimate, but it must be accompanied by a comprehensive strategy that attacks the financial networks, money laundering, and institutional corruption that allow these criminal organizations to operate. Mexico urgently needs a change of course in its security policy.
5. State of the Union Address: Trump before Congress at a decisive moment
Facts
President Trump will deliver his first State of the Union address of his second term tonight at 9:00 p.m. ET, amid a highly charged political climate. He does so with a partial government shutdown now in its second week, following the Supreme Court’s reversal of his tariffs, with the Iranian crisis nearing a boiling point, and with polls showing a 60 percent disapproval rating, according to the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll. Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger will deliver the official Democratic response. Several Democratic members of Congress, including Senator Adam Schiff, will boycott the speech. Survivors of Jeffrey Epstein will attend as guests of Democratic members of Congress.
Implications
The speech comes at a time when election indicators suggest serious complications for the Republican Party in the lead-up to the November elections. Democratic candidates are outfunding Republicans in the most competitive House districts, where Republicans hold a slim 218-214 majority. Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia has raised an extraordinary $43 million. Predictive models give Democrats a 69 percent chance of regaining control of the House. However, as the saying goes, eight months is an eternity in politics, and the winds can shift dramatically.
Perspectives and scenarios
Trump will predictably use the speech to highlight his foreign policy successes, including the death of El Mencho, the progress in Gaza, and the negotiations with Iran. He is likely to announce measures regarding Iran, which could include confirming an ultimatum or unveiling new military plans. However, domestic issues, especially inflation, tariffs, and the government shutdown, will weigh most heavily on public opinion heading into November. Republicans need to demonstrate tangible results on the economy to counter the Democrats’ advantage in grassroots enthusiasm and funding.
6. Hungary torpedoes European solidarity with Ukraine: veto of loans and sanctions
Facts
Hungary has vetoed both the 20th round of sanctions against Russia and the €90 billion loan for Ukraine, breaking a commitment made in December. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó is conditioning both measures on Ukraine restoring the transit of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline, which was damaged by a Russian drone attack on January 27. Slovakia, under Prime Minister Robert Fico, supports the Hungarian position and is threatening to cut off emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine, which account for approximately 17 percent of Ukrainian electricity imports. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas acknowledged the impossibility of making progress at the meeting of foreign ministers held on Monday in Brussels.
Implications
Viktor Orbán’s behavior is especially reprehensible on the eve of the anniversary of the Russian aggression. Using energy dependence as a political weapon, blaming Ukraine for not repairing an oil pipeline that Russia itself destroyed, is an exercise in cynicism that is hard to surpass. Analysts point out that Orbán is exploiting the issue to improve his prospects in the Hungarian elections on April 12, in which polls indicate a possible defeat for Fidesz. If the loan is not released before the end of March, Ukraine will face a budget crisis that could collapse its economy, dragging down the IMF program with it. European solidarity, that value we so often proclaim, cannot be held hostage by a single member state acting as an agent of the Kremlin within the Union.
Perspectives and scenarios
The EU will seek mechanisms to circumvent Hungary’s veto, but the unanimity required for such decisions limits its options. European Council President António Costa has appealed to Orbán to respect the December consensus. Several foreign ministers have openly questioned Budapest’s motivations. The situation could escalate if the Hungarian elections on April 12 result in a change of government, something polls suggest is possible. Meanwhile, the Coalition of the Willing initiative, led by France and the UK, will attempt to partially compensate for the lack of European institutional support.
III. MEDIA RACK
The analysis of today’s 90 international sources reflects the following predominant editorial lines:
Anglo-Saxon media (NYT, Washington Post, The Times, The Telegraph, The Guardian, WSJ, Financial Times, BBC, CNN, Fox News, CNBC, CBS): Intensive coverage of the fourth anniversary of the war in Ukraine, including analysis of casualty figures. Extensive follow-up on the implementation of tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling. Fox News maintains a pro-Trump stance on the Iranian issue and highlights the success of the operation against El Mencho. CNN and BBC emphasize the suffering of Ukrainian civilians and European divisions. The Financial Times and the WSJ focus on the economic implications of the new tariff policy and the uncertainty for the markets.
French media (Le Monde, Le Figaro, Libération, LCI, BFM, France Info): Extensive coverage of the visit by European leaders to Kyiv and frustration over the Hungarian veto. Le Figaro emphasizes the need for European strategic autonomy in the face of transatlantic uncertainty. France24 offers a detailed analysis of Trump’s ultimatum to Iran.
German media (FAZ, Die Welt, Die Zeit): Emphasis on the consequences of the Hungarian veto for European cohesion. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul expressed astonishment at Budapest’s position. Analysis of the repercussions of the new tariffs for the German export industry.
Italian media (Corriere della Sera): Coverage of the Ukrainian anniversary and Prime Minister Meloni’s visit to Kyiv. Attention to the tariff crisis and its effects on the European economy.
Israeli media (Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel Hayom, Jerusalem Post, Haaretz, Maariv): Priority coverage of Reuters’ exclusive on Chinese missiles for Iran. The Jerusalem Post and the Times of Israel quote analyst Citrinowicz on the paradigm shift that Iran’s supersonic anti-ship capability would represent. Haaretz emphasizes the threat of a preemptive Iranian attack against Israel.
Arab and Middle Eastern media (Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, Arab News, Asharq Al Awsat, Gulf News): Al Jazeera provides comprehensive coverage of both the Iranian situation and the violence in Mexico. Gulf media closely follow the nuclear negotiations and the US naval buildup. Coverage of the operation against El Mencho in Mexico and analysis of the regional implications for drug trafficking.
Ukrainian media (Ukrainian Pravda, Ukrinform, Kyiv Post, Kyiv Independent): Emotional coverage of the anniversary focusing on the victims and Ukrainian resilience. Harsh criticism of the Hungarian veto. Follow-up on Sunday’s massive Russian attack on energy infrastructure. Ukrainian Pravda publishes testimonies from families affected by the conflict.
Russian media (Russia Today, TASS): As usual, a distorted narrative presents the aggression as a defensive special military operation. TASS celebrates the Hungarian veto as proof that Europe is not united. RT downplays Russian casualties and amplifies Western divisions.
Asian media (South China Morning Post, China Daily, Yomiuri Shimbun, Straits Times, WION, Times of India, Hindustan Times): The SCMP and China Daily remain silent on the missile agreement with Iran. The Yomiuri Shimbun highlights Japan’s concerns over the new tariffs. Indian media extensively cover the Ukrainian anniversary and issue travel alerts for Mexico. WION offers global analysis of the tensions with Iran.
Latin American media (Clarín, El Mercurio, Reforma): Reforma offers comprehensive coverage of the operation against El Mencho and the subsequent violence. Clarín analyzes the regional implications of drug trafficking and the potential domino effects in Colombia and Ecuador. El Mercurio focuses on tariffs and their impact on Latin American economies.
News agencies (Reuters, AFP, AP, DPA): Reuters sets the agenda with its exclusive on Chinese missiles for Iran and analysis of Democratic fundraising. AP leads coverage of the Ukrainian anniversary with updated data from CSIS. AFP focuses on the Iranian ultimatum and tariffs.
IV. RISK TRAFFIC LIGHT
| RISK AREA | LEVEL | DESCRIPTION |
| Iran / Persian Gulf | CRITICAL | Trump’s ultimatum for 10-15 days. Two aircraft carriers deployed. Missile agreement with China. Negotiations stalled on key issues. Real risk of military action. |
| Ukraine / Russia | HIGH | Fourth year of war. Massive attacks on energy infrastructure. Hungarian veto of European loan. Peace negotiations stalled. Risk of Ukrainian budget crisis in April. |
| Global trade | HIGH | New 10% tariffs in effect. Legal uncertainty following Supreme Court ruling. Threat of a rise to 15%. 150-day deadline. Disrupted supply chains. |
| Mexico / Drug Trafficking | HIGH | Death of El Mencho. Power vacuum in CJNG. Violence in at least 6 states. 2026 World Cup at risk. Cartel fragmentation foreseeable. |
| European cohesion | HIGH | Hungary vetoes sanctions and loan. Orbán uses the Druzhba pipeline as a political tool. Hungarian elections in April. Slovak threatens to cut off electricity to Ukraine. |
| US domestic policy | HIGH | Partial government shutdown. State of the Union address. 60% disapproval rating. Midterm elections in 8 months. Democrats have a funding advantage. |
| Chinese expansionism | MODERATE | The missile agreement with Iran reflects growing assertiveness. Beijing’s diplomatic silence. Deepening of the China-Iran-Russia axis. |
V. EDITORIAL COMMENTARY
There are dates that compel reflection and commitment. February 24, 2026, is one of them. Four years after Vladimir Putin ordered the largest military aggression on European soil since 1945, the war in Ukraine continues to claim lives every day, destroy civilian infrastructure, and test the foundations of the rules-based international order that liberal democracies painstakingly built over more than seven decades.
The numbers are eloquent and terrible. Up to 325,000 Russian soldiers dead. Up to 140,000 Ukrainians killed in combat. More than 15,000 civilians verified as killed by the UN, a figure everyone knows is a conservative estimate. An entire nation displaced, with nearly six million refugees and almost four million internally displaced persons. All this because of the imperial ambition of an autocrat who intends to rewrite the borders of Europe by force.
However, today’s events are not just about Ukraine. They are about the world we are building, or allowing to be built. When Iran negotiates supersonic missiles with China while pretending to engage in dialogue with the United States, we are witnessing the very definition of bad faith. When the ayatollahs’ regime rearms itself with technology capable of sinking aircraft carriers while refusing to abandon its nuclear program, there is no room for naiveté. The three conditions demanded of it are fair and reasonable: to renounce uranium enrichment above the peaceful threshold, to abandon its arsenal of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, and to stop funding, arming, and training its terrorist proxies, from Hezbollah to the Houthis, from Hamas to the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Far from accepting these conditions, Tehran is striking arms deals with Beijing. The response must be firm and proportionate.
In Mexico, the death of El Mencho serves as a stark reminder that narcoterrorism is an existential threat requiring a decisive state response. The Trump administration’s hardline policy against the cartels is correct in its diagnosis, though it must be complemented by genuine international cooperation and profound institutional reform in Mexico. A country where the death of a drug trafficker unleashes chaos in half a dozen states is not entirely a failed state, but it does suffer from a government that has failed in its primary obligation: guaranteeing the safety of its citizens.
On the trade front, President Trump’s new tariffs, while understandable as a reaction to a trade system that has systematically harmed American workers, must not become a permanent trade war that erodes the prosperity free trade has generated for decades. Ronald Reagan, whose legacy remains the compass of sensible conservatism, understood that free and fair trade is the best guarantee of growth. Tariff barriers should be temporary bargaining chips, not ends in themselves.
Finally, Hungary’s behavior deserves unequivocal condemnation. Using energy blackmail to torpedo European solidarity with Ukraine, precisely on the anniversary of the aggression that Europe swore not to tolerate, is an affront to the values that the European Union claims to represent. Viktor Orbán is not acting as an ally, but as an agent of influence for Moscow within European institutions. It is time for the EU to find mechanisms to prevent a single member state from hijacking the foreign policy of an entire continent.
We, the committed Atlanticists and pro-Europeans, continue to believe in the transatlantic alliance, in representative liberal democracy, in a market economy with social responsibility, and in the uncompromising defense of fundamental rights and freedoms. These values cannot be defended on their own. They require political will, resources, and the determination not to yield to those who seek to impose a world governed by force and authoritarianism. Today, four years later, Ukraine remains standing. And we must continue to stand by its side.