Geopolitical Analysis & Commentary by Gustavo de Arístegui

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GEOPOLITICS REPORT

Oil Tanker

The period from May 6th to 7th, 2026, concludes with a realization that no one in this profession can deny: the international system is experiencing one of those phases of volatile warfare in which no actor manages to impose victory, yet neither can afford defeat, and in which diplomacy is forced to operate amidst the noise of the fighting and the fatigue of public opinion.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

US President Donald J Trump

Monday, May 4, began under the unmistakable shadow of “Project Freedom ,” the military operation announced by the White House to escort merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz, where, according to the British Royal Navy, nearly 20,000 sailors of various nationalities are trapped.

Lebanon, martyr state

Funeral ceremony for three members of the Lebanese Civil Defense in Tyre. WAEL HAMZEHC, EFE News Agency

How a country of 10,452 km² was dragged down for half a century by the depredations of Damascus, Tehran, and their proxies. And how, finally, a Lebanese majority dared to say enough is enough.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

Pete Hegseth

This analyst has been warning for weeks that “Operation Epic Fury” has entered a phase of dangerous strategic uncertainty.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

OPEC building

The events of April 28, 2026, brought five major news stories which, taken together, paint a picture of a world in which the pillars of the energy, diplomatic, and strategic order we knew in the 20th century are cracking at an alarming rate.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

Mojtaba Khamenei

The events of April 27, 2026, leave an international map whose lines of tension intersect.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

US President Donald J. Trump

The day of April 26, 2026, and the morning of the 27th, will be marked by a succession of events that, taken together, paint a disturbing picture of the drift of the international order.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

US President Donald J. Trump

The week of April 23-24, 2026, concludes a week in which the international system has confirmed two lessons that this analyst has been arguing for months: first, that “variable temperature” diplomacy —that diplomacy mediated by Islamabad, Abu Dhabi, and Washington—can prolong the containment phase without resolving it; second, that the paradox of decapitation continues to operate with unsettling precision at the apex of the Iranian jihadist oligarchy, whose military triumvirate—Vahidi, Zolghadr, and Rezaei—blocks the appointed negotiators to such an extent that Donald Trump himself, in his extension of the ceasefire on April 21, had to explicitly invoke the fracture within the Iranian government as a reason for granting more time.