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Geopolitical Analysis & Commentary by Gustavo de Arístegui

Lebanon, martyr state

Funeral ceremony for three members of the Lebanese Civil Defense in Tyre. WAEL HAMZEHC, EFE News Agency

How a country of 10,452 km² was dragged down for half a century by the depredations of Damascus, Tehran, and their proxies. And how, finally, a Lebanese majority dared to say enough is enough.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

Pete Hegseth

This analyst has been warning for weeks that “Operation Epic Fury” has entered a phase of dangerous strategic uncertainty.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

OPEC building

The events of April 28, 2026, brought five major news stories which, taken together, paint a picture of a world in which the pillars of the energy, diplomatic, and strategic order we knew in the 20th century are cracking at an alarming rate.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

Mojtaba Khamenei

The events of April 27, 2026, leave an international map whose lines of tension intersect.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

US President Donald J. Trump

The day of April 26, 2026, and the morning of the 27th, will be marked by a succession of events that, taken together, paint a disturbing picture of the drift of the international order.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

US President Donald J. Trump

The week of April 23-24, 2026, concludes a week in which the international system has confirmed two lessons that this analyst has been arguing for months: first, that “variable temperature” diplomacy —that diplomacy mediated by Islamabad, Abu Dhabi, and Washington—can prolong the containment phase without resolving it; second, that the paradox of decapitation continues to operate with unsettling precision at the apex of the Iranian jihadist oligarchy, whose military triumvirate—Vahidi, Zolghadr, and Rezaei—blocks the appointed negotiators to such an extent that Donald Trump himself, in his extension of the ceasefire on April 21, had to explicitly invoke the fracture within the Iranian government as a reason for granting more time.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

fighter jets on a carrier ship

Day 54 of Operation Epic Fury presents analysts with a bewilderingly complex picture: the Trump Administration unilaterally extends the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, while Tehran’s jihadist oligarchy, far from being grateful, seizes two ships from third countries in the Strait of Hormuz hours after the announcement.

GEOPOLITICS REPORT

President Donald J. Trump

April 21, 2026, begins as one of the most tense days since the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28.